Hurley's Picks: Seahawks In For No Picnic Vs. Packers; Patriots Should Roll Over Colts
BOSTON (CBS) -- If that was indeed the last we'll ever see of Peyton Manning, then I have to say ... what a bummer.
I'll readily admit that I'm not the right person to be singing the praises of Manning. As someone who was very much still growing up and very much a fan around the turn of the century, pointing and laughing and reveling in the failure of Peyton was a staple of my teenage years. There's no erasing that.
Yet over the years, much like with Derek Jeter, you mature into an adult and a professional and all of that. You become someone who can appreciate greatness.
And for as fun as it might be sometimes to enjoy a chuckle or two at ol' Peyton's expense, and for as much as I would never want him to be quarterbacking my team in January, there's no denying that he's the most prolific passer in the game's history. That's not up for debate. He's thrown the most touchdown passes of all time, he's second in completions and yards, third in passer rating and third in yards per game. He's the single-season record holder for passing touchdowns with 55, aka five more than anybody else, and he also owns the single-season record for passing yards with 5,477.
He's a choker and he wilts and he crumbles and all of that, sure, but he's also the all-time leader in game-winning drives AND fourth-quarter comebacks. He's also won 177 of the 256 regular-season games he's started.
So for as fun as it may be to watch him walk off the field with his head hanging, his arms in his little pouch, and his team about to lose, there's no arguing that the past 17 years in the NFL have been better because of Manning's presence.
Perhaps I'm wrong, though, and maybe a dreadful playoff loss is exactly how Manning's career should end. That is, after all, the way all but one of his seasons have ended since 2002. He's officially 11-13 in the playoffs, where his TD-to-INT ratio drops from 2.26-to-1 down to 1.58-to-1. He led the top-scoring Colts into New England in the '03 and '04 playoffs and put up a combined 17 points in the two games, both losses. In those two seasons, he had thrown 78 touchdowns and just 20 INTs, but in those two games, he threw one touchdown and five picks. He threw an interception to lose a Super Bowl, he looked godawful last year in the Super Bowl, and in the postseason run when he did win a Super Bowl, he threw just three touchdowns but seven interceptions in four games. Nine times he's made it to the playoffs, just to lose the only game he's played.
So, OK, yeah, sure, fine. I was wrong. What took place Sunday afternoon in Denver was exactly how Manning's career should have ended. Provided he doesn't return -- and does he look even remotely capable of playing another season in the NFL? -- the last image we'll have of Manning is of a guy who built a Hall of Fame career relying on his laser, rocket arm but could not adapt in the slightest to any unfavorable conditions. Whether that means rain, snow, wind, or as it has been for several years, a severe decline in arm strength, Manning has never been the most resilient quarterback the league has ever seen. And as a result, he may be done.
Alas, there will be time to write about the end of Manning's career. For now, there are four teams that still plan to play some more football this year. Let's talk about their games now, shall we?
(Home team in caps; Wednesday lines)
Green Bay (+7.5) over SEATTLE
I'm extraordinarily pleased that we're getting to see Green Bay-Seattle, because that's what we were supposed to get. Granted, it took a blessing from the rulebook gods for the Packers to be able to barely survive the Cowboys, but we've gotten the matchup we've expected.
To be sure, folks will be bringing up the Week 1 meeting between these two teams, but come on -- that game was played five lifetimes ago in terms of NFL years.
A lot has changed since the Packers and Seahawks last faced each other in Week 1. pic.twitter.com/6SiuJ1OShN
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 13, 2015
What actually is relevant from that Week 1 matchup is that there's zero chance that Aaron Rodgers avoids Richard Sherman again. That was a terrible strategy then, and teams have proven this year that Sherman is not invincible. You can throw to his side. (Unless you're Colin Kaepernick and you're bad at throwing passes. Then you might want to just tuck it and run.)
For as much as I had my worries last week about Rodgers' calf, and for as much as I still believe Seattle will win this game, I really struggle to envision a scenario where it's not a close game.
The Seahawks have been absolutely dominant since Week 12, allowing just eight points per game. But that came against some truly putrid scoring offenses -- the third-ranked Eagles were the only real competition, while the rest of the list included two games against Arizona (24th), two games against San Francisco (25th), and one game apiece against St. Louis (21st) and Carolina (19th). The quarterbacks they faced were Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (twice), Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill and Cam Newton. Those quarterbacks own, respectively, the 28th, 20th, 18th, 34th* (*if Lindley qualified, he'd be dead last), 24th and 26th passer ratings in the league.
Gross.
This isn't to tear down the Seattle defense, because it is legit. But now they have to face Aaron Rodgers, who is slightly better than Ryan Lindley and Shaun Hill. He owns the No. 2 passer rating in the NFL, and the Packers own the No. 1 scoring offense in the league.
Even though some of the Seahawks' victories lately have looked rather easy, this one surely will not.
I'm not putting too much stock into the fact that the Seahawks needed about 50 minutes of football before they could separate themselves from the 7-8-1 Panthers. There is something to be said about the rust factor coming off a bye, facing an inferior opponent when you know you can sleepwalk your way to a win at home. I anticipate things will be much more crisp this weekend.
And given the way DeMarco Murray sliced through that Green Bay defense last week, I believe the Seahawks' best course of action will be a steady dose of Marshawn Lynch. That will mean long drives that chew up clock, and it will also prevent the score from ever getting out of hand.
Final Score: Seahawks 24, Packers 21
And now, because I managed to say a lot of stupid things despite just four games being on the schedule last week, I give you some Ridiculous Quotes From Last Week's Picks.
RQFLWP, Part I: "The Patriots aren't losing this game. It won't even be close."
Note: Um. Err. Well. About that.
RQFLWP, Part II: "For as fun as it was spending the last couple of weeks of the season reading the career obituaries for Peyton, things aren't quite that dire right now for the Hall of Famer."
Note: *hides head in shame ... then decides to write a career obituary for Peyton*
RQFLWP, Part III: "When the Colts hit the road and face a team that is actually good at football, they get run over."
Note: At this point, you just have to admire the fact that I keep coming back here to make picks, considering the wealth of evidence that I should have stopped years ago. Though you could legitimately make the argument that the Broncos were not very good at football last weekend. Bam! Just like that, I've got my mojo back!
NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) over Indianapolis
I know what's happening this week, and I'm not going to fall for it. I've been around for too long to not recognize it.
Here's what's going on: The Patriots, clearly the best team in the AFC, found themselves fighting tooth-and-nail against a lesser (yet still tough) Ravens team. They barely survived, and because of that, everybody's being extra cautious with their expectations for Tom Brady's team this week.
"They barely beat the Ravens, I expect another close game."
"As the season went on, the Colts just Kept. Getting. Better."
"Any way you slice it, the Colts are a Dangerous. Football. Team."
Oh, phooey.
Come on. Are my opinions of the Colts supposed to change because of what happened last week in Denver? That thing looked like a preseason game. Peyton Manning couldn't throw the ball past the line of scrimmage, and Andrew Luck heaved up two of the easiest interceptions I've ever seen a defense make.
And if you think those interceptions are magically going to stop popping up on Sunday, you're crazy. Luck has faced Bill Belichick's team three times; he's completed 70 of 130 passes (53.8 percent) for six touchdowns and eight interceptions. He's been sacked five times, and with just 24 yards on five carries, he hasn't been much of a rusher, either.
Thus far in the young quarterback's career, his matchups against a Belichick-coached defense have been complete beatdowns.
(Though in following in line with the greatest Colts QB in history, Luck has racked up the passing yards. He's got 322 per game! Woohoo -- stats!)
The Patriots beat the Colts in Indy two months ago and ran them out of their own building. Literally. Jonas Gray is a young man who has experienced an endearing football journey but nevertheless has performed well in the NFL for exactly three hours. Those three hours took place that night, when he ran for 201 yards and four touchdowns. He could not be stopped. Again, that's Jonas Gray we're talking about. He's not exactly Jim Brown.
And whether it's Gray or LeGarrette Blount, I don't see any reason to believe the Colts would have an answer to stop the run. I likewise wouldn't believe that the Patriots would be so predictable as to roll with the same run-heavy game plan.
Nope, I think they might be interested in utilizing Tom Brady, who threw three touchdowns last week and went 8-for-9 for 71 yards and the game-winning touchdown when he was backed up against a wall and realized his season was hanging in the balance. And really, the Patriots beat the Colts by 22 points in mid-November on a night when Brady made two mistakes -- a back-foot flail before halftime and a deep heave to Brian Tyms in triple coverage -- that prevented the rout from being even bigger than it was. Chances are, Brady won't be making those same mistakes twice.
I will admit that in all honesty, without joking, the absence of Bryan Stork from practice this week made me reconsider this whole thing. But you don't rush for 246 yards in one game because of just one lineman, and if Cameron Fleming can return as the sixth lineman/full-time bulldozer, the Patriots can run just fine.
There's also nobody who can stop Rob Gronkowski, which is pretty much a truism every single week. Sergio Brown will be extra motivated after getting "thrown out of the club," but I also want to win a million dollars. Doesn't mean it's going to happen.
One thing I will say for the Colts: Whatever is the over-under for yards for Colby Fleener, take the over. He might pick up 200 hundy. But it won't matter.
Final score: Patriots 38, Colts 20
Last week: 2-2
Playoffs: 3-5
Regular season: 129-122-5
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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