Hurley's Picks: Roethlisberger To Keep On Slinging; Pump The Brakes On Cardinals
BOSTON (CBS) -- It's hard out here for a dad, man.
I'm taking some time off here, with the Patriots on their bye week, to help out around the house in raising my little baby girl. She's three weeks now but despite my best efforts, she still hasn't grasped the ability to cook, walk or go to the bathroom by herself. I haven't checked with any of the baby books, but I guess she's just a slow learner. I thought she'd have a job by now and we could sit down and have a conversation about her starting to pay some rent every month, but I guess that's on hold.
To compound the issue, I suffered a debilitating migraine on Wednesday night, and the combination of the dad duties with the pain that led me to being bed-ridden with no ability to stare at an electronic screen really sabotaged my plans for writing a picks column this week.
When I awoke on Thursday morning, I finally could handle the sight of my phone, and what did I see? This email message from my good friend McGonigle:
"Whoa - are you not doing your picks again because you're off for the week? That would be twice this season. That's bogus, man."
Yikes. Can't a dad catch a break?!
These are the burdens that we pick writers must bear, and so the show must go on. And considering McGonigle is the one who always emails me at 8 a.m. to point out my typos and mistakes, I suppose I owe it to him to give him some work to do.
Let's see what my sleep-deprived self/damaged brain can come up with this week, shall we?
CINCINNATI (-6.5) over Cleveland
Crikey. We put up with a bunch of wet garbage in these Thursday night games, and it leads up to this? We get a Bengals team that could barely handle the Jaguars against a Cleveland team that could barely handle the Buccaneers? Those Bucs and Jags are a combined 2-15. And now after a long, cold, rainy Thursday, some of us just want to sit down and enjoy a good football game ... yet we get to see the two teams that almost lost to the Jags and Bucs. Great.
I'll take the team that isn't from Cleveland.
Kansas City (-1.5) over BUFFALO
I would take Buffalo getting a point and a half at home, I really would ... but Sammy Watkins' questionable situation forces me to do what I hate more than anything: Picking Andy Reid and Alex Smith to win a fourth straight football game. Yuck. I don't feel good about it.
Miami (+2.5) over DETROIT
You know, I do all the research, I pull up all sorts of charts, I comb through stats, I check back through history, I do all of this stuff ... but I'm at the point where I feel comfortable enough to just say this: I hate picking the Lions, and so I won't do it.
They're 4-4 against the spread this season, and they went 6-10 against the spread last season. If you were to look at the Lions right now, which way would you say they're headed (against the spread, of course) -- toward 10-6 or toward 6-10?
Plus, I can argue that playing a game and winning 37-0 and outgaining an opponent by 260 yards is more advantageous than taking a bye week.
Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "The Dolphins will be able to run the ball and win the "battle" for time of possession, but the Chargers have the capability to win the actual battle that matters on the scoreboard."
Note: Miami 37, San Diego 0.
Dallas (-6.5) over Jacksonville (In London)
Enjoy Brandon Weeden, London peeps. You lucky, lucky ducks.
(I'm assuming Tony Romo doesn't play. If Tony Romo plays, that's just horrible. Give the man a three-week break to try to heal his busted back, you sick, sick Cowboys people.)
San Francisco (+5) over NEW ORLEANS
The two surprisingly bad NFC teams face off in a game from which the loser will walk away with a losing record. Who saw that coming? Before the season, this might have looked like an NFC Championship Game preview.
As it is, it's a disappointing Niners team that just lost to the Rams taking on a Saints team that is only useful/functional at home. They're home in this one, but the thing with teams that are only functional at home is that they're generally pretty bad teams.
San Francisco has a far superior defense, much better than any other that's visited New Orleans, so the five points look just too juicy to pas up. I wouldn't be surprised if San Francisco wins outright.
BALTIMORE (-10) over Tennessee
In the past two full calendar months, the Titans' only victory has come against the Jaguars. In the six losses that have come during that span, four have come by 14 points or more. What a fun season!
After a couple of tough division losses for the Ravens, a cupcake like Tennessee right before the bye is just what the doctor ordered. They'll probably win by 28.
RQFLWP: "What in the world was that from Ben Roethlisberger last weekend? I mean, really, what was that?! It's an aberration, if you ask me, and it's not happening again."
Note: Roethlisberger followd up his six-touchdown, 522-yard performance with a 340-yard, six-interception performance against the Ravens. So, like, I was kind of correct, right??
Pittsburgh (-4.5) over NEW YORK JETS
I picked the Jets last week. I picked the Jets getting 10 points last week. And how did I spend last week? Saying things like, "Oh, come on, Michael Vick. Please do something positive. Please. Please? Oh my dear, no, no, no, NO!" It was just a temporary glimpse into what life must be like for Jets fans, and I have a newfound level of sympathy for those poor souls.
Meanwhile, in the most absurdly random development of the 2014 NFL season, Ben Roethlisberger is just slinging touchdowns at a record rate. He probably won't throw six this weekend, though. He'll probably throw 10.
RQFLWP: "... every organizational failure hits a rock bottom at some point, and from that rock bottom, the only way to go is up. And a halfway-decent performance against an Andy Reid-coached and Alex Smith-quarterbacked team is not the most insane idea in the world."
Note: Yes, a decent performance from the Jets is actually the most insane idea in the world.
Atlanta (-2.5) over TAMPA BAY
What a dreadful matchup this is. The Falcons are 0-4 against the spread (and straight up) on the road, while the Bucs are 0-4 against the spread (and straight up) at home. So much losing.
Remember in September, when the Falcons ran the Buccaneers out of the Georgia Dome, improving to 2-1 and looking like a potential contender in the NFC? Well, Atlanta is 0-5 since then, outscored by 60 points along the way.
I suppose that 56-14 beatdown displayed too much of a matchup discrepancy that you can't go against Atlanta this time around, but I think the NFL would be better off if Roger Goodell just went ahead and canceled the rest of the season for the NFC South. Truly a sad, sad showing for those four teams this year.
OAKLAND (+11.5) over Denver
The 6-2 Broncos are one of the best teams in the NFL. It'll be a surprise if they don't make the Super Bowl. They're 4-4 against the spread.
The 0-8 Raiders are one of the worst teams in the NFL. It'll be a shock if they win two games this year. They're also 4-4 against the spread.
But the Raiders have kept their games within 11 points in all but two of their eight losses this year, and they might be feeling better about their six-point loss to Seattle than the Broncos are feeling about their 22-point loss in New England.
Rooting for the Raiders to lose by no more than 11 points is a classic American tradition like no other.
ARIZONA (-7) over St. Louis
The Rams are a tough team to figure. They're 3-5 but aside from a loss to the Vikings, they've only lost to teams that fall between decent and dang good (Dallas, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Kansas City).
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 7-1, and everyone seems to be considering them the darlings of the NFC. But what, exactly, has been their signature win? Beating the Brandon Weeden-led Cowboys? Road wins at the Giants and Raiders? A four-point win at home over the Eagles? No, no, no and no.
The Cardinals have had exactly one big game this year, and in that one, they lost by 21 points to Denver.
So brakes need to be pumped on the Carson Palmer-led Cardinals, because I've seen Carson Palmer lead enough teams to know that there's never anything worth getting really excited about with them.
(Alas, I don't believe St. Louis can put together two good performances in back-to-back weeks, so I'll take the Cardinals to win comfortably in another nothing game.)
SEATTLE (-9) over New York Giants
I feel like I've taken way too many favorites this week. It happens sometimes. And I'm not going to pick the Giants, on a short week, traveling across the country, with their season already down the tubes. That team is terrible.
GREEN BAY (-7.5) over Chicago
Some teams find themselves in a state of panic, but they hit their bye week and come back refreshed and refocused. The Chicago Bears, most certainly, will not be one of those teams.
I've got a feeling the Bears are going to go from very, very bad to much, much worse, because a prime-time game at Lambeau is not exactly ideal for a bad team trying to find itself.
PHILADELPHIA (-6.5) over Carolina
The lowlight of the Panthers' 3-5-1 season is definitely going to be losing on national television to Mark Stinkin' Sanchez. What a kick in the gut that's going to be.
(Sorry, that's not the lowlight. That honor belongs to the team's handling of the Greg Hardy situation. That's a true embarrassment. But this one falls next in line.)
Last Week: 6-7
Season: 75-58-1
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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