Hurley's Picks: Kirk Cousins In For Trouble Vs. Seattle; Patriots' Impressive Streak Set To Expire
BOSTON (CBS) -- The funniest moment of the entire NFL season came early last Sunday. On a bright, sunny day at the Meadowlands, Lions kicker Sam Martin booted the opening kickoff through the end zone for a touchback. Yet due to Detroit being offsides, the kick didn't count. The officials failed to properly explain why the ball needed to be kicked again, and there was some confusion on the field.
It was at the exact moment that the Fox cameras showed Lions head coach Jim Caldwell when color analyst Daryl Johnston said, "I think the coaches are as puzzled as we are."
I can assure you, Moose, that in most instances, Jim Caldwell is far more puzzled than you can ever imagine.
I say that knowing that Caldwell is 3-1 as Detroit's leader this year, which really has me questioning the significance of head coaches. I will admit that I have actually seen Caldwell speak words out of his mouth this year -- which is a new phenomenon -- but I still can't wrap my head around the idea that he may be motivating and controlling his team.
It is just one of the many, many mysteries that plays out every single season in the NFL, and this year is clearly no different.
How about some picks, eh?
(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)
GREEN BAY (-8.5) over Minnesota
I don't care that the Vikings are trying to tell me that Ted Bridgewater's ankle is healing rapidly. You don't cart your QB off the field if he merely suffered a light sprain and then expect me to think he'll be ready to go a few days later. You don't do that to me!
Now, a fully healthy Bridge, and maybe I'd have to reconsider for a moment, but still, a shaky team led by a hobbled rookie quarterback on a short week going into Lambeau? No thank you.
Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "That's nuts. Not as nuts as thinking the Vikings can compete, but still pretty nuts."
Note: I grossly underestimated the Teddy Bridgewater--Jerick McKinnon-Matt Asiata trio. And man oh man, I might never take the Falcons in an outdoor game ever again. What a bunch of sheltered freaks.
CAROLINA (-2.5) over Chicago
Honestly, I don't want to take either of these teams, but I suppose one of them has to win, right? Both teams were embarrassed last weekend, and both teams go hot then cold at random. If I could instruct these teams to do anything, it would simply be this: Figure it out.
RQFLWP: "[The Panthers-Ravens game is] shaping up to be a game decided by a field goal."
Note: This game was decided by the ever-popular 28-point field goal. Nailed it.
DETROIT (-7.5) over Buffalo
Imagine being a decision-maker in Buffalo and being in the room when a colleague uttered the words, "Inserting Kyle Orton at quarterback is what we need to save our season." How do you not hand in your resignation right there on the spot?
That's real life for some folks, just like it's real life that we're going to see Jim Caldwell serving as the head coach of a 4-1 football team. That's nearly too much for me to handle. I need to go stare at a wall for a little while, clear my head, think things through ... I'm unwell.
Houston (+6) over DALLAS
OK, this one of nine spreads this week that is at, near or over a touchdown, and it's really freaking me out. You have to figure that all nine favorites aren't going to cover. In fact, I'd be semi-surprised if more than five do. So you have to start looking at those big favorites and figure out which teams aren't your horses.
The Cowboys, even after last Sunday night, are not my horse. And they'll never be my horse.
Hopefully Ryan Fitzpatrick can deliver another impassioned speech before going on to throw two interceptions and have his defensive end finish with more receiving yards than any of his own receivers. "I will lead you to a victory! Sort of!"
RQFLWP: "I initially wrote this pick for Dallas, and then I started picturing all of the bozo mistakes Tony Romo is going to make on national television, and then I realized that even though the Saints' defense is worse than Dallas', the Saints' offense is much better than Dallas'. So what I'm trying to tell you is that the Saints are going to win 77-63."
Note: So. Much. Ridiculousness. In. One. Statement.
NEW ORLEANS (-10) over Tampa Bay
The freaking Bucs. The Bucs. Seriously, the Bucs? Are you serious, Bucs? You put forth the single worst performance in NFL history one week and then win on the road the next week? What is that, Bucs? Seriously.
Anyway, the last time the Bucs went on the road to face a divisional opponent inside a dome, they lost by about 250 points. That was two weeks ago. The stench remains, even with that win over Pittsburgh.
I just can't believe I have to actually use my brain when picking against the Bucs now. Thanks for nothing, Pittsburgh.
RQFLWP: "[Nothing]."
Note: I gave the Bucs such a little chance to compete in Pittsburgh that I didn't even bother to use any words to justify my pick. In my defense, the Bucs were coming off the worst football game I think I've ever seen in my life, so I'm sorry for thinking the Steelers might be able to fend them off at home. My bad. I'll never trust the Steelers to do anything again.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5) over Atlanta
I mean, I already wrote that I'm never taking the Falcons in an outdoor game again, so my hands are tied here. Why are they so bad outdoors? How does that happen? Where did these players grow up -- a bouncy house? And how did they all end up on the Falcons? Did "Hard Knocks" cover this?
It's bizarre. It shouldn't be so difficult for human beings to adapt to playing in fresh air, yet the Falcons react as if they're in outer space.
RQFLWP: "The fact remains that the Redskins are significantly better than the Giants in every possible category.
Note: While my statement remains factually correct, it turns out that the Redskins, much like myself, had never heard of Larry Donnell. For me, it's somewhat forgivable, but the NFL team game-planning against New York should probably study the roster better than that.
Baltimore (+3.5) over INDIANAPOLIS
You really have to believe in whatever the Ravens have working for them. Ever since the Ray Rice story really turned into a mess, the team has been rolling. They've won three straight, twice by 20 or more points, and they're close to getting me to buy in.
Where the Colts have a distinct advantage is in their No. 1-ranked passing offense going up against the 24th-ranked passing defense. But the Ravens know how lock it down and keep teams out of the end zone, as evidenced by their average points allowed standing at just 15 -- tied for second-best in the NFL. They have the best red-zone defense by a country mile, too.
Field goals figure to play a major factor in this one. You might as well go with the team that's starting with a free one.
PHILADELPHIA (-7) over St. Louis
Perhaps the Eagles put forth that stink-fest in San Francisco last week just to keep this week's spread low and therefore make it an easy pick. Thanks for stinking just enough last week, Philly.
Pittsburgh (-7) over JACKSONVILLE
Rare is the day when a team loses at home to the Bucs and then is a seven-point road favorite the following week. Even rarer is the day when you pick that seven-point road favorite, almost with no hesitation at all.
If the Steelers lose this game a week after losing at home to the Bucs, they should just fold the franchise and call it a day.
Cleveland (+1.5) over TENNESSEE
I can't believe how much I like the Browns this week. I truly cannot. I'm actually quite disturbed. A human shouldn't be into the Browns this much. But here we are. Go Browns! (I'm currently waiting for something terrible to happen to me now.)
DENVER (-7) over Arizona
Remember what I said earlier about picking your horse? The Broncos are quite literally a horse, and coming off a bye week, and with Carson Palmer still dealing with nerve problems, I have to think this is the week when the 2013 Broncos return and just lay a beatdown on a sad, unfortunate opponent.
New York Jets (+7) over SAN DIEGO
I watched the entirety of the Jets game last Sunday. Start to finish. I came away just absolutely stunned that real life human beings choose to do that every single weekend. There's so much more to life than watching the Jets play football. If you're reading this, please -- please -- try to skip a game and get a taste of life without the Jets. You'll be so much better off for it.
As for this game, the Jets are the team that just hangs around enough without actually winning, so provided they can avoid the urge to put in Michael Vick (that would be an unmitigated disaster), I think they can pull off losing by six points in San Diego.
"The 2014 New York Jets: Good enough to lose by six points!" Hey, that's got a nice ring to it.
Kansas City (+6.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
Short week, yeah. Potential for a letdown game after an emotional win at home, yeah. But with the way Colin Kaepernick has been giving the ball back to defense, and with the way the 49ers held the Eagles to 213 yards but could still only manage a five-point win, you can't trust the Niners to cover a touchdown. Not this year.
Cincinnati (-1) over NEW ENGLAND
In the Random, Useless Fact of the Week category, I'll tell you that the Patriots have won 31 consecutive games at home against AFC opponents. It goes back to the Matt Cassel year. Tom Brady hasn't lost against an AFC opponent at home since November 2006 against the Jets, aka the last time Gillette Stadium had natural grass.
Remember that one? Tom Brady looked like this:
Vince Wilfork looked like this:
And Bill Belichick looked like this:
Anyway, that streak is coming to an end this week, and that look from Belichick may be returning. The Patriots are a mess, they literally cannot do one thing correctly on offense, and unlike in other years when you think they'll use an "us-against-the-world" mantra to rally together for a huge win, there have been no signs of cohesiveness or toughness that suggests it'll be the case this time around.
They're also coming off a short week after getting manhandled on national TV, while the 3-0 Bengals come in nice and rested off their bye.
The fact that the line is only one point might be the steal of the entire weekend.
Wait a second ... did I just take an Andy Reid-Alex Smith combo and a Marvin Lewis-Andy Dalton duo to beat the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady pairing in two consecutive weeks? And did I do so with confidence? Oh, dear ... I think I need another Belichick face.
Seattle (-7.5) over WASHINGTON
Oh my goodness. Pretty much the worst thing in the world that could possibly happen to Kirk Cousins after his brutal four-interception "performance" on national TV last week is to have the aggressive, ball-hawking and violent Seattle defense come to town for another national TV game. For those of us watching at home, this one has all the makings of "hit the sheets by halftime. It's going to be ugly.
Last week: 8-5
Season: 37-24
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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