Hurley's Picks: OK, So Maybe The Patriots Are Pretty Good

BOSTON (CBS) -- Last week, I spent a solid 500 words explaining my core belief that there is no team in the NFL that is currently very good.

The Patriots are stretching the limits of my conviction.

You see, because the Patriots were so bad in September, losing ugly to the Dolphins and Chiefs while beating the Vikings just days after the Adrian Peterson mess broke and narrowly slipping past the Raiders in Foxboro, I had trouble buying in. As Jonah Hill said in "Superbad," people don't forget.

Since then, of course, the Patriots have been rolling. They've rattled off seven straight victories, winning by an average of 20 points. They've knocked off teams that, at the time of the game, were considered to be at or near the cream of the conference crop. They dispatched the then-undefeated Bengals, 43-17. They demoralized the Broncos, then 6-1. They went on the road and ran all over the Colts, who were 6-3 and in first place in the AFC South.

And then last week, after I wrote that the Patriots had warts like everybody else, they went out and put up 34 points on the No. 1 defense in the league.

And when you look back at that bad month of September, even though some dummies were spouting off about Tom Brady being suddenly terrible and the Jimmy Garoppolo era beginning, it was pretty obvious that the interior line was the real problem. So remove Jordan Devey and Marcus Cannon, replace them with Bryan Stork and Ryan Wendell, and the entire season turns around. I can buy that. Take Brady out of a situation where he's getting split-seconds to work and give him a healthy pocket, and things change dramatically.

So, OK, fine. I give. The Patriots are a very good team, and they should be considered as the league's best. Of course, to that end, they face a very worthy test this weekend at Lambeau. I just may get sent back to square one by Sunday night.

(Because it's Thanksgiving week, we're rolling with Tuesday's  lines. The home teams are still in all caps.)

Thanksgiving Picks

DETROIT (-7) over Chicago
The Bears have proven capable of handling zero adversity this season. They're all likely seeing this short week and saying, "Yeah, we have no chance, whatever, who cares, what's for dinner?"

Plus, the Lions have to score some touchdowns again at some point. Right? RIGHT?!

Philadelphia (+3) over DALLAS
The Cowboys are 2-4 against the spread at home (and just 3-3 straight up), and losing on Thanksgiving, as they're beamed into the living rooms of every family gathering in the country, losing in embarrassing fashion seems to be the most Cowboys outcome possible.

The Eagles also got a mini-bye last weekend, essentially getting a weekend of rest and relaxation by hosting the miserable Titans.

Seattle (Pick 'Em) over SAN FRANCISCO
The Seahawks have been searching desperately to find their swagger, their mojo, whatever the heck you want to call it. They're looking to rediscover the team-wide attitude that made them great last year. Well, a game against the team they hate the most, on national (ish) TV, against a 49ers team that might just be plain old bad (their point differential is just plus-3) ... it seems like the perfect place to find it.

The Rest Of 'Em

ST. LOUIS (-7) over Oakland
The Raiders won a game. That's great. Good for them. Setting yourself up to finish the season with a 1-15 record is certainly reason to celebrate like a donkey all night long:

PITTSBURGH (-3.5) over New Orleans
The Saints are bad at football. They've lost three straight home games, and outside of a 2-1 record within their godawful division, they're 2-6. They stink. And they're going to play outside, on grass, in cold weather, on a short week, against a team coming off a bye. Easiest pick of the week right here.

Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "The Saints are bad this year. Very bad, even. But are they lose-three-straight-games-at-home bad? I don't think so. That's Jacksonville Jaguars bad."

Note: The Saints indeed are Jacksonville Jaguars bad.

INDIANAPOLIS (-10) over Washington
There's not much that could convince me to take the Redskins. Putting up a fight against the 49ers doesn't do much to sway me.

Robert Griffin hasn't proven to answer the bell when challenged, so as the sports world spends the entire week questioning whether his time with the Redskins will end forever in just a few short weeks, it's safe to bet on another zero-touchdown, zero-impact game from the QB.

Carolina (+3) over MINNESOTA
The Panthers have not won a football game since Oct. 5. They've been outscored by 85 points. This is a team that won 12 games last year. Surely, they have to win again, right?

Well, why not against a Vikings team that is average at the very best, that employs a rookie QB with a 75.7 passer rating and more interceptions than touchdowns, and that plays at a college stadium that only holds 52,000 people?

Why not?

RQFLWP: "The Packers are going to win by 30."

Note: In fairness, this came after a full paragraph that explained why the Vikings were a good pick. Sometimes the brain is actually smarter than the gut.

Cincinnati (-4) over TAMPA BAY
Brutal. I will never feel comfortable putting my faith behind a Cincinnati three-game win streak. But I'll likewise never feel great about trusting a 2-9 Bucs team to keep it within four points.

Brutal.

I've been harsh on the Bengals in recent weeks, and it's bitten me, so I suppose I'll take them this week to avoid further embarrassment. That's admittedly a horrible reason, however, so I advise you to never ever pick the Bengals.

New York Giants (-2.5) over JACKSONVILLE
Honestly?

BALTIMORE (-5.5) over San Diego
What's more of a disadvantage: Turning around on a short week after a road game on Monday night, or traveling across the country after placing your third center on IR and also having an injured quarterback? I lean toward B.

Cleveland (+2.5) over BUFFALO
I'm always thankful when the better team gets points. Those are my favorite games.

And yeah, it's a little bit close, but the Browns are slightly better than the Bills. So long as the backup quarterback's entourage isn't stomping random fans in hotel lobbies.

RQFLWP: "Being the Bills means being the Bills. That means staying true to the fabric of the organization, which in this case dictates that they will lose to the 2-8 Jets. That's just science, folks."

Note: Candidate for Ridiculous Quote of the Year.

Tennessee (+6) over HOUSTON
When your quarterback depth chart reads as "Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tom Savage, Thad Lewis" ... ouch.

My only real comment on this game is that it's not worth watching. Go rake some leaves or something. Paint a wall. Take up a craft. Try to learn guitar. Do like, 400 push-ups. Just don't watch the game. What's the point?

Arizona (-2.5) over ATLANTA
Kind of a no-brainer. The Falcons are the worst. Mike Smith is the worst (in the Non-Jim Caldwell Division of head coaches, of course). No. Brainer.

New England (+3) over GREEN BAY
I mean, I didn't write all of that in the intro just to pick the Packers this week, you know?

While I don't think this is a slam dunk by any means, I still find it hard to envision a scenario where anyone stops the Patriots right now. They're doing whatever the heck they want on offense, whether that be handing the ball to some unknown kid for 200 yards and four touchdowns or trusting one of the best quarterbacks in history to surgically tear apart a defense. And defensively, Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner are playing exceptionally, thereby affording freedom to the other nine guys to go crazy. It's really been a stretch of near perfection.

Of course, if any team can break it up, it's Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. But for as much as I want to think Jordy Nelson and/or Eddie Lacy represent dangerous weapons, I've seen the Patriots handle the Brandon Marshall/Alshon Jeffery duo, Demaryius Thomas, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, T.Y. Hilton and Calvin Johnson with ease for the past four games. I think they can handle another challenge.

Denver (-1.5) over KANSAS CITY
The Chiefs still have the "You Guys Lost To Oakland And Therefore Have A Foul Stench Surrounding You For At Least Two Weeks" vibe going on with them.

RQFLWP: "I still have zero doubts about Denver playing at home, where the Broncos are 5-0 and win by an average score of 35-19."

Note: If the Broncos can only barely handle the Dolphins on a cold day where some stray snowflakes fall on the field, what can we really expect from them come January?

Miami (-5.5) over NEW YORK JETS
Is there a number high enough that would make you take the Jets here? Plus-25? Plus-40? Plus-100? The team just lost to an opponent that didn't get to practice until Saturday, in some other team's facility. Embarrassing.

The New York Jets are an affront to everything in this world that is good and right. They are downright offensive to all people who take pride in their work and expect the same out of millionaires who are paid to play a game. They are, quite simply, the worst.

But on a serious note, happy belated birthday, Rontez Miles.

Last week: 6-8-1
Season: 97-77-2

Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.

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