Hurley's Picks: London Getting Brutal Matchup; Brady In For A Long Monday Night In Kansas City
BOSTON (CBS) -- Baby steps.
If I could offer everyone in the NFL some advice, it would be just that: baby steps.
I say that after yet another week of a buttfumble-esque PR car crash this past week, this one coming from Steve Bisciotti and the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens organization set out to refute some claims that were made in an ESPN investigative report, which was written by two-time Pulitzer winner Don Van Natta Jr. and Kevin Van Valkenburg , and they did such a sloppy job with their shifty timing and 2,800-word statement and 45-minute unapologetic press conference that they came away looking worse than they did when the day started.
So rather than overthink things and try to solve every problem at once, the NFL and any owners in hot water should follow the advice of Richard Dreyfuss as Dr. Leo Marvin in the 1991 comedy classic What About Bob?: "It means setting small, reasonable goals for yourself one day at a time -- one tiny step at a time. For instance, when you leave this office, don't think about everything you have to do in order to get out of the building -- just think about what you have to do to get out of this room. And when you get into the hall, deal with that hall. And so forth."
It works, too, because I can totally picture Roger Goodell losing his mind and muttering to himself, "It works! It works! All I have to do is take one little step at a time, and I can do anything! Baby-step around the office ... baby-step around the office." Before long, ol' Rog would be shouting, "I'm sailing! I'm sailing!"
So there you go, NFL. Take baby steps, and I fully believe you can go a full week without having a PR disaster. You can do it!
Now let's make some picks.
(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)
WASHINGTON (-3.5) over New York Giants
I went 13-3 last week, which was my best week in my five-plus-year history of doing this, and it all started out with a Thursday night game which was completely over by halftime. It will always be a good week of picks when it starts with a no-doubter on Thursday night. While I don't think Kirk Cousins and Co. will have quite as easy a time with the Giants as Matt Ryan had with the Bucs last week, the fact remains that the Redskins are significantly better than the Giants in every possible category. And on a short week when there's not a whole lot of time to install schemes and plays, the better team typically wins.
Ridiculous Quote From Last Week's Picks: "Ben McAdoo's [Giants] offense is off to a lousy start. What better way to fix it than have J.J. Watt come to town to terrorize your quarterback?"
Note: I did not anticipate Rashad Jennings going off for 176 yards on the ground. Did not see that coming. Nor did I foresee Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing three picks to the Giants ... though perhaps I should have.
Miami (-4) over Oakland (in London)
I really don't understand why the NFL sends such lousy competition to London every year. If you want to sell the game overseas, maybe send two good teams? I don't know, just spit-balling here, but showing the 2013 Jaguars and the 2012 Rams and the 2011 Buccaneers probably won't win over as many international fans as showing some real NFL teams might.
You might be able to make the case that this is the worst London matchup yet -- a Miami team that apparently revolted against the defensive coordinator last week and now won't commit to its "Quarterback Of The Future" to even start this week going up against an 0-3 Raiders team that has scored four touchdowns in three games. Sounds like a good time.
So on behalf of the United Sates, I'd like to apologize to you, Mother England, for the fact that the league is sending you the Dolphins and Raiders. We'd be better off just sending you a giant television screen to watch the Red Zone Channel. There will be much better football on that.
RQFLWP: "I think I would have taken New England -50 [over Oakland] this week."
Note: Look, if you had told me that the Patriots would have four red zone trips, three of which got inside the 3-yard line, I would make this pick all over again. Thanks for nothing, Tom Brady.
Detroit (-1.5) over NEW YORK JETS
Rex Ryan is forced to draw up some of the wildest blitz schemes in the league because he has a defensive backfield made up of you and your buddies from college. I know that the Lions are typically lousy on the road (0-4 in last four road games going back to last year, outscored 109-67 in the process), but Muhammad Wilkerson's questionable status and Geno Smith's questionable decision-making mean that I simply cannot trust the Jets this week.
Carolina (+3) over BALTIMORE
Tricky one here. Both teams are 2-1, with a blowout victory and a one-score victory apiece. The Panthers score 21 points per game; the Ravens score 21.7. The Panthers allow 19.3 points per game; the Ravens allow 16. The Panthers have a good passing offense and a bad rushing defense; the Ravens run the ball well but can't defend the pass.
It's shaping up to be a game decided by a field goal, so the three points look lovely.
(Also, if there's an over-under for the number of fist fights started by Steve Smith, hammer the over.)
RQFLWP: "The Steelers are terrible."
Note: I was in the midst of having my greatest Sunday of picks ever, and I was really confused when this game was on, because every time I'd hear the Carolina crowd cheer, I'd look up only to see the Steelers had done something positive. Do Panthers fans not like going to games on Sunday nights or something? That was confusing and rough and so I hereby declare that my missed pick shouldn't count. I didn't know it'd be a home game for Pittsburgh in Carolina.
INDIANAPOLIS (-7.5) over Tennessee
I have no use for the Tennessee Titans, who are 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 games, going back to last year. No use at all.
HOUSTON (-3) over Buffalo
The Bills are surprisingly decent. The Texans are expectedly decent.
It's a more even matchup than it may seem, but I think the Texans will find some leftover mojo from that Week 1 halftime performance by Smash Mouth. This is the type of deep, next-level football analysis that you really can't get anywhere else.
Green Bay (-1.5) over CHICAGO
I find it rather crazy that the Bears and Packers have the 27th and 28th-ranked offenses in the NFL, considering they ranked No. 8 and No. 3 -- respectively -- last season and have QBs who aren't afraid to sling it. But it's been slow-going thus far, and Aaron Rodgers currently ranks 15th among QBs in passing yards. Fifteenth! Rodgers! Fifteenth -- I kid you not!
But Chicago's defense is a good deal worse than Green Bay's, and both of these teams basically lost to the Jets (you might remember, I touched on "basically lost" stats last week in the wake of Green Bay's good fortune, and it's back now after that idiotic touchdown-killing non-fumble call on Monday night for Chicago), so there's no reason to hesitate in picking Rodgers and the Packers.
PITTSBURGH (-8) over Tampa Bay
Next.
RQFLWP: "Coincidentally, 'Big Old Discombobulated Mess' is just another way to say 'Tampa Bay Buccaneers.'"
Note: In retrospect, I obviously undersold just how terrible the Buccaneers are. My bad.
SAN DIEGO (-13.5) over Jacksonville
Next!
Philadelphia (+5.5) over SAN FRANCISCO
It's not even October yet, and the Niners are teetering. They're making idiotic mistakes on the field, and people are starting to talk about their head coach bolting because nobody in the organization likes him. They're also losing to Drew Stanton and the Cardinals on the weekends. Things are not going too well for the 49ers.
What the 49ers really need is to have some cupcake opponent this weekend, but unfortunately they're getting the 3-0 Eagles.
Atlanta (-2.5) over MINNESOTA
Matt Ryan is so bad on the road that even against the very bad, Adrian Peterson-less Vikings (who happen to have just lost their starting quarterback), and even coming off a 21-for-24, three-touchdown performance in basically half of a football game last week, his team is still only trusted to cover a field goal. That's nuts.
Not as nuts as thinking the Vikings can compete, but still pretty nuts.
New Orleans (-3) over DALLAS
I goof every week on how bad the Cowboys' defense is, but the Saints' defense is (impossibly) worse. Worse! That's crazy.
And for as much as I want to believe the Saints figured it all out last week, I can't believe that. They beat Teddy Bridgewater by just 11 points.
At the same time, I initially wrote this pick for Dallas, and then I started picturing all of the bozo mistakes Tony Romo is going to make on national television, and then I realized that even though the Saints' defense is worse than Dallas', the Saints' offense is much better than Dallas'.
So what I'm trying to tell you is that the Saints are going to win 77-63. The game will end around 3 a.m. You will see so many commercials.
KANSAS CITY (+3.5) over New England
We live in a world where an offense led by Alex Smith averages 21 more yards per game than an offense led by Tom Brady. This is taking place in real life (supposedly).
Of course, the biggest reason why Brady's offense can't do anything is because the offensive line is a disaster. Truly. I do believe the O-line will improve with the addition of Bryan Stork and the re-addition of Ryan Wendell when he's healthy, but I do not believe issues that run so deep can be fixed overnight. I also do not think a raucous Arrowhead on a Monday night is the setting for everything to magically come together.
Last week: 13-3
Season: 29-19
Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.
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