Hurley's Picks: Broncos Better Without Manning, Patriots Will Handle Bills -- As Always

By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston

BOSTON (CBS) -- Just about every week I've done this column for the past six-and-a-half NFL seasons, I've wanted to quit. Whether it was after suffering the pain and shame of having a horrible week, or whether it was for a desire to go out on top after a remarkably successful week, I've pretty much always wanted to stop.

Yet I keep coming back.

Can you relate?

Surely, if you follow the NFL like this, you must be able to understand the feeling, and you've no doubt dealt with it yourself. And let me tell you, following a weekend where the freaking Texans pull off an upset on the road with T.J. Yates playing quarterback against an 8-0 team, I wanted to quit. The freaking Texans with T.J. Yates playing quarterback!

Following a week when the Packers lost at home to the 1-7 Lions in Green Bay for the first time since the days before the Talkboy existed, I wanted to quit.

Following a week where the most prolific regular-season passer in the history of the game threw four interceptions on 20 attempts and when the Chiefs beat the Broncos for the first time in four years, I wanted to quit (though I did have a hearty chuckle).

Following a week when the Saints allowed the Redskins to go from a 10-point, 250-yard performance in Week 9 to a 47-point, 514-yard performance the next week, I wanted to quit.

Following a week when Ben Roethlisberger was not even supposed to dress for the game but then entered as an injury replacement and threw for 379 yards and three touchdowns, I wanted to quit.

You get the point.

But as Rocky Balboa once said, "The world ain't all sunshine and rainbows. It's a very mean and nasty place and I don't care how tough you are it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain't about how hard ya hit. It's about how hard you can get hit and keep moving forward. How much you can take and keep moving forward. That's how winning is done! Now if you know what you're worth then go out and get what you're worth. But ya gotta be willing to take the hits, and not pointing fingers saying you ain't where you wanna be because of him, or her, or anybody! Cowards do that and that ain't you! You're better than that!"

Yeah! That's right! Thank you, Sylvester Stallone! Let's do this!

On a side note, I find that my awful performance in Week 10 came as a result of karmic backlash for failing to include Ridiculous Quotes From Last Week's Picks in the past two editions. I didn't feel I was saying anything all that ridiculous! But the jerk football gods noticed, so they'll return with a bang this week.

(Home team in caps; Wednesday lines)

JACKSONVILLE (-2.5) over Tennessee
Listen, guys and gals, if there's one thing I stand by in this world, it's that you never -- never -- go against the Jags on a short week. Not with those mustard stain jerseys coming out of the plastic for all the world to see.

Jags week, baby!

(I know that last week I said I'd stop talking about the AFC South, because of how putrid the entire division is, but I'm sorry that I'm not sorry. This is Jags week.)

Indianapolis (+5.5) over ATLANTA
Refusal to discuss the AFC South: I deleted the Facebook app from my phone this week. It was liberating. It really struck me how much time I spend scrolling through that app, looking at everybody's terrible political opinions and worldviews (every which way; I'm non-discriminatory), seeing all of the clickbait You'll Never Believe What Happened Next stories, and looking at status updates from people I don't really know.

I'm really looking forward to my new life, where I'm not locked onto my phone so much. *Instantly checks Twitter to see if anyone has said anything new in the past three minutes.*

Denver (+1.5) over CHICAGO
Being that nobody in the world has ever seen Brock Osweiler play football (Arizona State doesn't count), I imagine that most people are staying away from this game. But I think that Denver defense is going to be revitalized, knowing that all of their hard work is not going to get flushed down the toilet by a pizza/insurance salesman who throws the worst interceptions in the history of the sport.

Re-energized Broncos defense, I give you ... Jay Cutler. Have a field day, fellas.

Oakland (-1.5) over DETROIT

That's really all I've got to say about that.

RQFLWP: "What is it going to take for Jim Caldwell to get fired? He is like a zombie. You cannot get rid of him."

Note: This point was actually only reinforced last week. That one win will inexplicably keep him in charge for another three years.

Dallas (-1) over MIAMI
Look, I live by few mandates, but when the quarterback of the Cowboys tweets something this brash in the days leading up to his comeback ...

I'm buying in.

RQFLWP: "The Dolphins either win big or lose big (average margin of victory in Miami games either way: 18 points). And the Dolphins are going to lose."

Note: The Dolphins won. It was close. In my defense, I did not know that Mark Sanchez was going to play. Totally not fair.

New York Jets (-2.5) over HOUSTON
Refusal to talk about the AFC South: Hey, so, Amy Poehler and Tina Fey are co-hosting Saturday Night Live. The show itself probably won't be great, because it's not a great show, but I hope America does the right thing and gives it better ratings than the Donald Trump-hosted episode. Because, you know, these hosts are actually funny.

Tampa Bay (+5.5) over PHILADELPHIA
Really don't know what the hell to make of either of these teams, so I'll have to rely on the numbers. And oh, look at that, oh goody, they don't help either.

Against the spread, the Bucs are 5-4; the Eagles are 4-5. As underdogs, the Bucs are 2-3; as favorites, the Eagles are 3-4. On the road, the Bucs are 3-1; at home, the Eagles are 2-2.

That last one, plus the points, are all I really have.

Ohhhhh, wait, hang on a tick.

There we go.

CAROLINA (-7) over Washington
Kirk Cousins is so, so very bad on the road. Like, 122.8 passer rating at home, 66.3 passer rating on the road bad. Like, 7-6 as a starter in his career at home and 1-9 as a starter on the road bad.

Against defenses with cornerbacks who seek vengeance over tackling the ball carrier, sure, the Redskins are fine. But against an undefeated team, and with Kirk Cousins on the road, no thanks.

RQFLWP: "But there's really nothing in the world that could convince me that the Washington Redskins are capable of winning a football game this weekend. I saw them with my own two eyes last week. It was junior varsity."

Note: Whatever. The NFL calls it parity. I call it a bunch of bad football teams.

BALTIMORE (-1.5) over St. Louis
Last week, the officials on the field missed a false start penalty on my Jaguars, thereby allowing play to continue. On that play, the Ravens committed a facemask penalty, which put my Jaggies in field-goal position. My clutch Jaguars won the game, but afterwards, the NFL admitted that the officials missed the call and that the Ravens should have actually won the game.

Given that Baltimore and Jacksonville rank near the bottom of the league, the result of the game won't have much impact on the postseason. But it will have an effect on the draft order, which will in turn alter each franchise in a way for the next decade. (Top 10 picks typically play for a while.)

And for this offense of failing to do their simple job, the officials have been punished by ... not being punished at all.

Roger, you promised me that integrity of the game is more important than anything. I fear you may have lied to me.

SAN DIEGO (+3) over Kansas City
Both of these teams are #bad.

Thank you.

RQFLWP: "Not only do the Chiefs stink, but they are also property of the Denver Broncos. ... The Broncos own the Chiefs. Easiest pick of the week."

Note: Damn it.

Green Bay (+1) over MINNESOTA
I'll admit that I may believe in the Packers more than I should, even though I've been saying since September that it's not nearly as good a team as last year's Packers. Not even close.

But if you asked me what I believe more -- whether the Vikings will be able to string together a sixth straight victory like some great team, or whether the Packers will dig deep and respond after suffering an embarrassing loss at home -- then there's very little internal debate.

Getting points (well, a point) with the Packers is something new. I'll take it.

San Francisco (+13) over SEATTLE
While fully acknowledging that the Seahawks may win this game by 40 points, I generally only like to take teams favored by two touchdowns when they're actually good teams. You see my problem here?

ARIZONA (-5) over Cincinnati
Another rule: When a quarterback joins Degeneration-X and gestures to the 12s on national TV, I'm buying in the following week. It is simply my duty.

NEW ENGLAND (-7.5) over Buffalo
As much as I think the Patriots are playing with fire with that thin offensive line and losing a third of their offense in Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis in consecutive weeks, I can't help but shake the fact that the Bills celebrated a meaningless Week 17 win against Jimmy Garoppolo and the fourth-string Patriots as if they had actually won something worthwhile.

Dummies. The Patriots weren't trying to win the game. I think that Tom Brady guy might play this time.

I also remember Rex Ryan trying to throw a challenge flag back in Week 2 in order to try to get a fourth-and-9 from his own 29-yard line instead of a fourth-and-15 from his own 23-yard line. In the first quarter. And then I saw him use both of his challenges last week in bozo-type situations. And then I try to imagine all of the goofball mistakes he'll go when he's up against Bill Belichick on national TV.

The Bills + Gillette Stadium = comedy. Always and forever. Amen.

RQFLWP: "I just feel like Tom Brady has proven he can excel behind a makeshift offensive line, and the Giants just don't provide enough resistance to make this a game."

Note: Had 'em all the way, baby!

Last week: 4-10
Season: 66-77-3

Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here. You can email him or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.

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• Peyton Manning
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