Hurley's Picks: Breaking Down Scintillating MVP Race And Buying In To Ravens In Foxboro
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- It's Week 14 of the NFL season, and the drama is somewhat lacking.
Of the league's eight divisions, four (maybe five) possess teams that can actually win the Super Bowl. There are some close divisional races, sure, but they largely involve the 6-6 Fest that is the AFC South ... or the Detroit Lions ... or the Atlanta Falcons.
With all due respect, can we just skip to January?
I've checked with officials in charge, and unfortunately this is a no-go. So we have to make do.
While the final seedings are still being sorted, we know with a good level of confidence that the Cowboys, Patriots, Raiders, maybe the Seahawks and maayyyybe the Broncos are the ones who will contend for a Super Bowl. The rest of the league is ... just sort of there. Maybe the Steelers or Ravens will get frisky, but neither is a complete team.
So with much of the usual drama being absent this year, we collectively turn our attention to something that is hotly contested: the all-important MVP Award.
OK, so maybe nobody cares that much about the MVP, either. But let's do a quick scan of why some of the favorites WILL win the award and also why they WON'T win the award. (That's called covering all of your bases, people.)
THE CANDIDATE: DEREK CARR
WHY HE WILL WIN MVP: Because if the game can be rigged for Rich Gannon to win the award as a Raider (Rich Gannon!), then it could happen for anyone.
WHY HE WON'T WIN MVP: You think Roger is going to let the team employing the league MVP skip on right out of town to make some money from the next band of suckers up the road? Not happening. Bad optics, as they say.
THE CANDIDATE: TOM BRADY
WHY HE WILL WIN MVP: Because he's old. So, so old. People love when old people do things. Hillary Clinton dabbed! Bernie Sanders sat down with Killer Mike! These old people tried to sit still for a few seconds! LOL! Classic! I, for one, can't get enough!
WHY HE WON'T WIN MVP: For as long as people like Peter King are willing to create new criteria whenever they see fit, Brady doesn't stand a chance.
THE CANDIDATE: DAK PRESCOTT
WHY HE WILL WIN MVP: Because he threw a piece of trash into a garbage can. And because even though Tony Romo is a nice man, the universe sometimes appears to have conspired against him.
WHY HE WON'T WIN MVP: How does a man named "Rayne" go by "Dak"? Something doesn't add up. Some will say that he's merely taken a nickname from his middle name of Dakota. But that conspiracy is a little too convenient for some MVP voters.
THE CANDIDATE: MATTHEW STAFFORD
WHY HE WILL WIN MVP: Hahahahaahahaha oh man!
WHY HE WON'T WIN MVP: Classic. Good one.
THE CANDIDATE: EZEKIEL ELLIOTT
WHY HE WILL WIN MVP: Ezekiel is a badass name. There aren't enough Ezekiel's out there. Zeke is also fun to say. That's a 2-for-1, for those of you keeping score at home.
WHY HE WON'T WIN MVP: His fumble at the goal line to lose the Cowboys' home playoff game in the divisional round will force the NFL to change the results before the award ceremony on Super Bowl weekend, to spare everyone from that painfully awkward moment.
"OK," you may be saying, "so if those guys aren't going to win, who will?"
Glad you asked. You know, it's been a tough few years for Roger and the NFL when it comes to the PR game, and when a corporation needs good PR, who do they go to?
Yup. That good ol' boy Peyton is fixing to earn him a sixth MVP Award. You heard it here first. It's been a long time since the NFL handed out some hardware to Peyton -- too long, in fact. And what better way to boost NFL morale than to throw a hunk of metal at this fella?
It could be a real win-win. The NFL would get to trot Manning out on stage (this polls favorably with 88 percent of Americans), and who knows? Manning might even land a sponsorship deal that could land him on some television commercials.
So congrats in advance to Peyton. Amazing, truly. One of a kind. The Sheriff. So cool.
Picks time.
(Home team in CAPS; Wednesday lines)
KANSAS CITY (-3) over Oakland
This is one of those picks that just feels wrong to make as soon as you make it. It doesn't feel good, my friends. It does not feel good at all. These Raiders seem like a group that can get up for a big game on national TV with a lot on the line.
But, they also seem like a group with a pass defense that stinks out loud. They give up 389 pass yards per game. Per game! That's better only than San Francisco and Cleveland. That's a perfect environment for success for human sleep machine Alex Smith, who completed 19 of 22 passes in a very boring fashion against the Raiders when they met in mid-October.
Oh, and the Chiefs also thumped the Raiders that day by 16 points. Now they'll meet in Arrowhead, which is a tough place to play. Oakland hasn't been tested much on the road (at New Orleans, Tennessee, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Tampa doesn't really get the juices flowing).
I don't like picking the Chiefs. But I have to.
Minnesota (-3.5) over JACKSONVILLE
I don't care if they let Ragnar coach this game. They'd still have the best head coach in this contest.
Denver (+1) over TENNESSEE
I mentioned the AFC South earlier. What a bad, bad division. There's a three-way tie for "first place" involving three teams that are 6-6. What a romp.
Washington (Pick 'em) over PHILADELPHIA
Remember when the Eagles started 3-0 and people got excited but then they went 2-7 and now even Eagles fans are feeling like watching the games on Sundays are an obligation more than a voluntary act? Good times.
INDIANAPOLIS (-7) over Houston
It's really telling when first place is on the line for a Week 14 matchup, and it's only airing in the markets involved. The powers that be have decided that nobody cares about this football game.
Pittsburgh (-2) over BUFFALO
I picked the Bills last week, man. I picked them to win that game outright. And I'll tell you what: For the better part of the afternoon, I felt smart as heck. Really, smarter than all heck, if I'm being honest.
But that meltdown was something spectacular. That was truly a historic moment in Rex Ryan's coaching career. You just don't see meltdowns like that on a regular basis. Nor does a team like the Bills recover from it in just seven days.
MIAMI (-1) over Arizona
What -- Arizona covers a spread for the first time since the middle of October and I'm supposed to think they're suddenly the 2015 Cardinals?
Cincinnati (-6) over CLEVELAND
I don't know what's up with this line, but I do know that is putting a lot of stock into the Browns somehow getting better over their bye week.
Think of this game like this: the winless Browns have manages to lose by fewer than six points just three times all year. By contrast, they've managed to lose by double digits eight times.
San Diego (+1.5) over CAROLINA
The Chargers have been doing this win one-lose one thing for more than a month, while the Panthers have been doing more of a "just lose pretty much all the time" thing. It's always possible that a team responds well to getting embarrassed on national TV, but I'm not convinced the 2016 Panthers are the team to do that.
DETROIT (-8) over Chicago
This line could probably be 28 before I'd have to start thinking about it.
SAN FRANCISCO (-2.5) over New York Jets
Oh my goodness! Oh me, oh my! The San Francisco 49ers hosting the New York Jets! One-and-eleven vs. three-and-nine! Colin Kaepernick vs. Bryce Petty!
How did this game not get flexed into prime time? Was someone asleep at the switch? Is it too late to throw it in there? Pretty please?!
Atlanta (-6) over LOS ANGELES
If you can manage to watch the Rams fall all over each other in this video and then somehow still believe they're going to compete in a football game in the NFL, then more power to you. (The play at the end, where the Rams allowed three different Patriots to be able to make a sack, was like artwork.)
TAMPA BAY (-2.5) over New Orleans
(*Leans back in chair*)
(*Looks around*)
"So, uhh .... are we in on the Bucs now? Is that what we're doing?"
It's not a comfortable place, but four straight wins, and here we are.
Seattle (-2.5) over GREEN BAY
When the schedule came out, this was supposed to be a whopper. It's now turned out to be slightly less than that. And, no, victories over the Eagles and Texans does not provide any basis to believe Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have figured out much.
NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) over Dallas
Hello, and welcome to my Bonehead Pick Of The Week. Nice to have you here.
Look, I know the Giants have a tendency to play like a wet diaper from time to time. I know that they haven't swept the Cowboys in a season since 2009, when Dak Prescott was applying for his driver's license. I know all this.
But I also know that being the best team in the NFL all year can get heavy and it can weigh on a team. It's tiring. And when nobody else in the conference is even challenging you for the top spot, then a letdown is bound to happen at some point.
I also know that the Giants have a history of being entirely random and showing up in big games, and always when I pick against them. I'm just trying to get out ahead of this one.
Baltimore (+7) over NEW ENGLAND
It's never a comfortable position to pick against the Patriots when they're at home. But if any team can limit the Patriots offensively, it's the Ravens. Watch the video of this pick Tom Brady threw in a tie game the last time Baltimore visited. Does that look like Tom Brady to you?
Brady just sometimes struggles to be Brady when the Ravens come to town. Dating back to '09 (John Harbaugh's first trip to Foxboro as coach of the Ravens), the Patriots haven't won a game at home vs. Baltimore by more than six points. They've also lost two games via blowout. So just take the points and don't try to think about it too much.
Now I'm off to search for an over-under on the length of this game. Ed Hochuli is refereeing. It's a nationally televised game on Monday night featuring two premier teams. People will be watching. And so, Ed will be talking. And talking. And talking.
God help us all.
Last week: 9-6
Season: 91-95-6
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.