Hurley's Picks: Brady Over Luck An Easy Pick, Manning Set To Continue Assaulting Defenses

BOSTON (CBS) -- I've been thinking a lot about statistics recently. Namely, I wonder if they're becoming meaningless.

The thought is nothing new, of course. When Matthew Stafford threw for 5,000 yards and then followed it up with a 4,967-yard season, people probably started to say, "Hey, wait ... what?" And a quick glance at the record books shows that the five highest single-season passing yard totals have come since 2011, and 10 of the top 11 have come since 2008.

Dan Marino's record of 48 passing touchdowns stood as the most in a single season for 20 full years until Peyton Manning broke it in 2004. That record's been broken twice since 2007, and it could fall again this year, next year and the year after that with the way things are going.

Of the top 10 single-season passer ratings ever posted, eight were set by quarterbacks who are still active today. One of those players is Nick Foles, a young man who doesn't really belong above Joe Montana and Steve Young on any list.

Obviously, it's a glorious era to be a passer in the NFL, as there's never been a better time to post silly stats on a weekly basis, set records and collect absurd amounts of cash (even if you're Andy Dalton and you pretty much stink). But as those statistics keep piling up -- and they will so long as Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers keep playing -- they're exponentially losing their value as the record books start to look only like a record of the past five seasons.

It's particularly been on my mind for the past few weeks, after yet another seven-plus day window of people making comparisons between Brady and Manning. Cold Hard Football Facts argued that Brady was "empirically superior" to Manning in an attempt to end the debate. It made for a fun read, but it ended zero debates.

The thing is, with the way all of these statistics pile up, people will always be able to selectively pick and choose the ones that best fit their argument and use it as evidence. And with guys like Manning (8,805 pass attempts) and Brady (6,920 attempts), there's such a wealth of stats that the "debate" really can never have a true winner when looking solely at stats. This isn't something exclusive to football (Barry Bonds really threw a wrench into baseball's history), but it's a relatively new development and I believe it's gone too far to ever come back.

So I've come to grips with the fact that no matter which way you slice it, "settling" debates such as the Manning vs. Brady argument will always have to come down to one thing and one thing only: personal preference. For all of the articles written, controversy started and hot air spent, there's still no accounting for taste.

But by all means, please continue to shout about it. Don't let me spoil your fun.

Let's jump into some picks. You don't get any Ridiculous Quotes From Last Week's Picks because in my migraine fog state, I actually was pretty respectable. Perhaps I should suffer a soul-crushing headache every week in order to make better picks for you.

(Home team in caps; Wednesday lines)

Buffalo (+5) over MIAMI
Hey, look, it might actually be a decent game on a Thursday night. "Might" is the key word there, as you never want to rely on the Bills to do anything positive for you, but I'm really digging the points here. The Bills are 3-1 on the road this year, they whooped the Dolphins 29-10 back in September, and they are every bit as decent as the Dolphins.

I recognize that it's difficult to beat a divisional opponent twice in a season when you're not an outstanding team yourself, but keeping it within five points shouldn't be too much to ask.

(I'll admit, the one wild card that has me nervous is the Dolphins' decision to wear the all-aqua uniform this week. That's a potential game changer, you know.)

CHICAGO (-3) over Minnesota
Rock. Hard place.

On the one hand you have the Bears, arguably the most pathetic team currently "playing" on Sundays. On the other hand you have the Vikings, a team that has collected four wins against the Rams, Falcons, Bucs and Redskins (teams that are a combined 10-26) while losing to the Patriots, Saints, Packers, Lions and Bills (teams that are a combined 29-16). So the Vikings can beat lousy teams but can't beat decent-to-good teams.

Are the Bears, at home but losers of three straight in embarrassing fashion, a truly lousy team, or can they muster a decent effort for three measly hours on Sunday afternoon? I think they might be well overdue for at least a little bit of success, and the Vikings are a good opponent to let them find it.

San Francisco (-4) over NEW YORK GIANTS
You know what still drives me bananas? It's a play that was forgotten to history almost immediately after it happened, wiped away by Kyle Williams' fumbled punt return, Eli Manning's "Walking Dead" look and the Giants' Super Bowl victory two weeks later. It was a play that, in my completely non-humble opinion, was botched by the officials and changed NFL history. And it's a play that never gets discussed.

It came with two and a half minutes left in a tied NFC Championship Game in January 2012. Eli Manning and his offense were backed up on their own 15-yard line, facing a second-and-21. Flushed, Manning dumped a short pass to Ahmad Bradshaw behind the line of scrimmage, and the running back picked up five yards before getting tackled. In the process of Tramaine Brock's tackle, NaVorro Bowman came in and ripped the ball loose. Dashon Goldson jumped on the loose ball, and it should have been first-and-10 for the 49ers in field goal range with just 2:20 left in the game. The 49ers almost certainly would have won the game, advanced to the Super Bowl and taken on the Patriots. It would have been a fair fight, and the Niners might have earned their sixth Super Bowl championship in franchise history.

Yet Ed Hochuli's crew, which is always horrible, blew the whistle early, ruling that Bradshaw's forward progress had been stopped prior to the ball coming out. To further prove the crew's incompetence, head linesman Mark Hittner came running in from the sideline. He dropped a bean bag to signal a turnover but then signaled a first down for the Giants. It's a pet peeve of mine when officials do this when the play in question did not actually result in a first down. The linesman A) should not have ruled forward progress to have been stopped long enough to kill the play and B) should have at least held up three fingers for third down instead of signaling for a first down. When an official signals a first down to identify possession, it's a sign that the particular official is overwhelmed by the moment.

In any case, the Giants kept possession, the teams exchanged three punts before regulation ended, and New York eventually capitalized in overtime on the Williams fumble before going on and winning the Super Bowl. But really, none of it should have ever happened.

Sports, man.

Anyways, long story short, the Giants stink, so they're going to lose this weekend.

Denver (-10) over ST. LOUIS
The Broncos have entered the "Demolish All Opponents And Take No Prisoners" portion of their schedule. They even toyed with the Raiders and gave them a 20-minute head start last week, still managing to win the game by 100 points with Peyton Manning throwing for 97 touchdowns. I have a feeling that the switch of Shaun Hill for Austin Davis won't be the difference maker in this one.

Hopefully we don't have to see Brock Osweiler look like someone just stole his puppy again. That was tough to watch.

Tampa Bay (+7) over WASHINGTON
Granted, a lowly team like the 1-8 Buccaneers doesn't have much to hang their hat on, but they still have to look at this line and take it as a slap in the face. It's saying that they can't even hang with the Redskins, who at 3-6 are no Super Bowl contender themselves. And it has to sting.

Realistically, the Bucs haven't been that bad. Yes, they're 1-8, but of those eight losses, five have come by six or fewer points and one came by 10 points (and two came by a million points). They can compete on occasion, and they have a decent shot of at least keeping it relatively close with the Redskins.

Aside from beating the Cowboys on Monday Night Football, the Redskins have only beaten the Jaguars and Titans. The Redskins are atrocious, so if you think trusting them to cover a touchdown is a good idea, perhaps this is just not your sport.

(At the same time, if you're interested in this epic Tampa Bay-Washington matchup, perhaps it is also not your sport.)

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Cincinnati
The Bengals are garbage. It's that simple. There are times when TV cameras catch Marvin Lewis displaying the blankest of blank stares, and it makes me wonder if the Bengals hire someone to politely explain the rules of the game through the head coach's headset.

"Marvin, hi --"

"Who the hell is this and how did you get inside my head?"

"Marvin, it's Billy, I work for your coaching staff. You're wearing a headset."

"Oh, OK. I'm thirsty!"

"OK, Marvin, well ... I can't help you with that, but you should know that you only get three timeouts per half, so you should be more judicious in how you take them."

"OK. Sure. What?"

The fact that Andy Dalton couldn't even compose himself against Cleveland on account of the lights being on and the national TV cameras pointed at him is just so typically Dalton that it makes all those "Bengals look like legitimate AFC contenders" stories from September look laugh-out-loud funny these days.

So, yeah, Dalton + Lewis + Superdome = Bad News Bengals.

Atlanta (+1.5) over CAROLINA
The 2014 Useless Bowl features the 3-6-1 Panthers, coming off a brutal drubbing on their home turf, hosting the 3-6 Falcons, riding the triumphant high of beating the Buccaneers to end a five-game losing streak. What a waste these two teams -- and this entire division -- have been for the NFL this season.

Maybe to add some intrigue the NFL should force these teams to put something on the line. Maybe the loser has to cancel the rest of its season, forfeiting all those home gates and concessions and whatnot. Or maybe instead of having Cam Newton try to sidestep all the pass rushers who treat his offensive linemen like bad Pop Warner players, the league can turn this game into an obstacle course of sorts, with Newton tasked with escaping a pair of wild dogs, or a swarm of bees, or some hungry crocodiles. (Come to think of it, such an escape would probably be easier for Newton than the rushers he faces on a weekly basis.)

Anyway, my personal rule is to never take a team on a short week after it allowed nine sacks and got carved up by Mark Sanchez. It's a powerful rule, one that overpowers the "Never, Ever, Ever, Ever Take Matt Ryan On The Road" rule.

Seattle (+1) over KANSAS CITY
There's nobody alive who is capable or willing to tackle Marshawn Lynch right now.

CLEVELAND (-3) over Houston
It's the battle of Brady backups, albeit one that heavily favors Brian Hoyer over Ryan Mallett in terms of experience. I have no doubt that the Houston Texans will be much better off going forward without Ryan Fitzpatrick taking snaps, but I don't think a guy with four career passes in the NFL who looks exactly like Jesse Pinkman is going to hit the ground running.

I feel like Tim Tebow should get an invite to this game somehow, some way. Remember Tim Tebow?

Oakland (+10.5) over SAN DIEGO
I really need to stop picking Oakland, it's bad for my health. BUT, I saw this on ESPN earlier this week:

And if this wasn't printed out and pasted all over the Raiders locker room, and if it can't inspire these men to at least only lose by 10 points, then the Raiders are worse than I thought. And I thought they were pretty darn bad.

(Speaking of which, my apologies to any Raiders I offended when I referred to the Bears as the most pathetic team in the NFL. It should have been assumed that I was referring to the Non-Oakland Division of the Most Pathetic Team conversation, but I did not explicitly state that, so I'm sorry if I caused you any grief in the past few minutes.)

Philadelphia (+6) over GREEN BAY
Admittedly, after seeing Aaron Rodgers decimate an opponent on Sunday night, I have trouble feeling entirely confident about this pick, but six points is way too much for two teams that are nearly identical on paper. Look!

Points per game:
Philadelphia: 31
Green Bay: 30.8

Points allowed per game:
Philadelphia: 22
Green Bay: 22.8

Yards per game:
Philadelphia: 404
Green Bay: 358

Yards allowed per game:
Philadelphia: 367
Green Bay: 372

When you look at that, how can you not take the six points?

ARIZONA (-2) over Detroit
Am I crazy for liking the Cardinals more now that Carson Palmer is done? It's not that I'm enamored with Drew Stanton so much as I just knew what I'd be getting out of Palmer: A first-round playoff exit.

Don't get me wrong, I like Palmer. He seems pretty cool. His decision to "retire" and spend his weekends tailgating at USC was legendary, and his comeback this year was pretty cool. I feel bad for him that his knee crapped out on him as he was having one of the better years of his career.

But at the same time, Palmer has played in exactly two playoff games in his decade-long career. One was the Kimo von Oelhoffen game (I spelled that correctly on my first try without looking it up, so where do I pick up my prize?!) and the other one saw him completing just 50 percent of his passes while throwing for 146 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a 24-14 loss to the Jets.

So for as good as the Cardinals might have looked prior to last week, they still had Carson Palmer at quarterback, and the talk of the Cardinals playing a home game in the Super Bowl just seemed far-fetched. It may still be with Stanton at QB, but you could make the case that they have more hope now.

As for this week, they could probably win with me at quarterback. Jim Caldwell is overdue for some excessive failure. Horseshoes only work for so long.

New England (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS
It's typically a good idea to take the points if Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are getting them, no matter the circumstance. But when they're playing a team that they demolished by 21 points in the playoffs last year? Easy street.

Granted, the home field has flipped, and LeGarrette Blount isn't around to run for 166 yards and four touchdowns this time around, but the subtle roster changes aren't worth a 24-point swing. Plus, Andrew Luck has thrown six touchdowns and seven interceptions against Bill Belichick-coached defenses. Now Darrelle Revis is employed in Belichick's secondary. I see very few ways in which this works out for the Colts.

Pittsburgh (-6) over TENNESSEE
I guess you have to pick the Steelers here, considering the Titans have covered just once since early September. And that was against Washington, so it hardly even counts.

But I'll tell you one thing, folks. If you've learned nothing from me, learn this: The Justin Bieber curse is real.

I've seen headlines this week on major sports websites titled "Big Ben: Don't Blame Justin Bieber For Loss To Jets." Smells like another conspiracy to me, ladies and gents. Remove the wool from your eyes and see the world for what it is: A world where Justin Bieber curses are real enough for legitimate news outlets to cover them.

#BlameBieber.

Last week: 9-4
Season: 84-62-1

Read more from Michael Hurley by clicking here, or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.

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