Hurley: One Significant Aspect Of Jimmy Garoppolo Trade That Nobody's Addressing
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Trade rumors regarding a potential Jimmy Garoppolo move to Cleveland were resurrected a bit this week, in advance of some potential talks that may or may not take place in Phoenix at the upcoming annual league meeting.
Legend has it, the Browns may be gearing up to "make another run" at Garoppolo, with the hope of acquiring a franchise-saving quarterback. Given the steadfast reporting of Adam Schefter about the Patriots' being absolutely unwilling to trade Garoppolo no matter what, such speculation is treated with multiple grains of salt these days.
And even though Garoppolo trade chatter has been going on for essentially two full months at this point, and even though every possible return package has been examined and assessed, there is one rather significant matter that's gone almost completely ignored.
What if Bill Belichick doesn't really like the top of this year's draft?
What if Bill Belichick doesn't really care much for the No. 12 overall pick in this year's draft because there's nobody in the draft pool he considers worthy of such a high draft position?
Belichick's opinion of the 2017 draft class may well be the most significant factor in determining what -- if anything -- is an acceptable price for Garoppolo. Currently, Belichick is shaping that opinion by traveling the country and attending various pro days. Considering the Patriots currently don't have a pick higher than No. 72 overall, such trips at this moment would be classified as "due diligence." Belichick is both evaluating players and shaping a plan for how many draft picks he feels he needs in April.
Consider the additions already made this offseason: Brandin Cooks, Stephon Gilmore, Kony Ealy, Rex Burkhead, Dwayne Allen. That is already a fairly full offseason's worth of additions to a roster. Nobody's roster spot is ever guaranteed, but there clearly won't be room for the Patriots to add six or seven drafted players to the 53-man roster.
Consider the retention of Dont'a Hightower's services.
Consider the two up-in-the-air situations: Garoppolo and Malcolm Butler. The backup quarterback roster spot affects the team much less than the starting cornerback, of course. But Garoppolo's status is, essentially, the means to acquiring high draft picks if such picks are deemed necessary.
Consider the team's current needs. They need to add the next starting tackle sooner than later. They might need a depth linebacker. Maybe another big man to clog the middle, too. Maybe Belichick gets wild and moves to a new kicker.
They have some needs, but they are the defending Super Bowl champions and they lack a glaring hole on the roster at any one spot. So does the No. 12 overall pick not lose at least some of its allure at that point?
Look around the internet at the mock drafts, and here's the collection of players who will seemingly be available around No. 12:
QB Mitchell Trubisky
QB DeShaun Watson
CB Tre'Davious White
QB DeShone KizerCB Sidney Jones
CB Gareon ConleyTE O.J. Howard
RB Christian McCaffrey
DE Derek Barnett
DE Solomon ThomasWR Corey Davis
WR Mike WilliamsLB Reuben Foster
Eliminate the QBs immediately. And the tight end for that matter (probably). A cornerback may be appealing, but with all that guaranteed money for Gilmore, and with Butler likely (?) under control for another year, spending such a high pick on a corner would really break the Belichick mold. They're well-stocked at receiver and don't typically look to the first round for help in such areas. Other than that, it's reasonable to believe Belichick does not identify any player there who provides more value to the 2017 Patriots than Garoppolo.
As we know, Belichick typically thinks one or two or three years down the road. His Jamie Collins trade was the perfect example. He deemed Collins expendable, a player he would lose to free agency in the offseason. He also deemed his defense good enough to exist without Collins. So Belichick traded Collins in the middle of the season for what turned out to be the 103rd overall pick of this year's draft. Had Collins left via free agency, Belichick may have gotten a similar pick in 2018.
And, because the sun sometimes shines on Belichick, he won the Super Bowl in the middle there.
That must be considered when discussing a potential Garoppolo deal. Instead of saying "a first and a second should be enough to make the deal," it's now time to deal in specifics.
It's not as if Belichick hasn't emerged from a draft without making too many additions in past years. In 17 drafts, he's averaged nine selections per year. That's ranged from as low as six in 2002 to 12 in 2009 and 2010. (It's likely no coincidence that Belichick went looking for so much help in those two particular years. The Patriots were not great in '08 and '09.) In years following Super Bowl victories, the Patriots drafted six, eight, seven and 11 players in the following drafts. As it stands right now, they own seven picks in the 2017 draft. It wouldn't be unfathomable for them to stay at that number.
This is also almost certainly true: Belichick will not feel an impulse that tells him he has to get high into the first round. He's picked in the top half of the first round just three times with the Patriots. In five drafts, he's made his earliest selection after No. 30 overall. Last year he made his first pick at No. 60. In 2013, his highest pick was at No. 52. There will be no panic in Belichick if he ends up making his first 2017 selection at No. 72 overall.
The "theory" of No. 12 overall no longer applies. It's all about the actual players who may or may not be available. While nobody ever really knows what's going on inside the mind of Bill Belichick, it's fair to at least ponder the idea that he just doesn't see the 2017 NFL draft as being particularly talented.
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.