Here's how Patriots' playoff chances look after stunning loss to Raiders
BOSTON -- A lot of things were shaping up for the Patriots this weekend.
The Dolphins lost in Buffalo. The Jets lost to the Lions. All New England needed was a win over the 5-8 Raiders to improve to 8-6 and solidify a postseason spot for another week, setting up for a dramatic final three weeks of the season.
As stated, things were shaping up for New England. Until things went sideways.
The Patriots used up all that drama in the final minute in Las Vegas, giving up a long touchdown drive before throwing the game away on an ill-advised lateral play that will live on in Butt Fumble and Colts Fake Punt infamy for years.
While that's bad in its own right, the loss also did a number on the Patriots' playoff chances.
That obviously may not seem important after a loss like Sunday's showed the Patriots aren't really ready for prime time, it's still generally a better situation to be a playoff team rather than being a non-playoff team. This year, though, the Patriots are now trending toward the latter scenario.
Here's the AFC Wild Card picture, through 15 weeks:
Baltimore Ravens, 9-5
Los Angeles Chargers, 8-6
Miami Dolphins, 8-6
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New England Patriots, 7-7
New York Jets, 7-7
(Four teams at 6-8)
According to Five Thirty Eight's prediction model, the Patriots' chances of making the playoffs are at just 19 percent, a drop of 27 percentage points from last week.
Worse yet, if the Patriots fail to beat the 10-4 Bengals (who are on a six-game winning streak and who have won eight of their last nine), New England's playoff chances fall to the single digits, at 8 percent.
Even if the Patriots manage to win their next two home games -- vs. Cincinnati on Christmas Eve, vs. Miami on New Year's Day -- then their playoff odds will still only be at 60 percent. Some outside help will be needed.
Even that likely won't be enough. If the Chargers lose to the Colts and the Rams (not going to happen), and if the Dolphins lose to the Packers before losing to the Patriots, and if the Patriots win their next two games ... then they're still only at 81 percent. That's a pie-in-the-sky, complete dream scenario, and even that doesn't guarantee the Patriots a postseason spot, with a Week 18 trip to Buffalo looming.
The New York Times' "Upshot" model is a bit rosier for the Patriots, giving them a 27 percent chance to make the postseason as it stands right now. The loss to the Raiders dropped them down from 42 percent. If the Patriots lose to the Bengals, the number drops to 12 percent. Even a split with the Bengals (win) and Dolphins (loss) drops the chances to 6 percent. Flip-flop those results (a loss to Cincy, a win over Miami), and the Patriots' chances are slightly better at 24 percent. But it's still a bit dim.
Per the Upshot model, the Patriots' playoff chances jump to 42 percent if they manage to find a way to beat the Bengals. It goes up to 67 percent if they beat the Bengals and the Dolphins. And they're still technically in control of their season's outcome, as three victories to close out the year at 10-7 would give New England a 100 percent chance of making the playoffs.
That's all well and good in the land of models and computer and data projections. But on the football field, the Patriots have had their fair share of trouble winning games, thus making most of that exercise seem a bit futile. Had the Patriots held on to their 24-17 lead in Vegas, then perhaps it's a different story. But that ill-fated toss from Jakobi Meyers to Chandler Jones proved to be catastrophic on multiple levels for a team that's been grinding to stay in the playoff hunt all season.