Five Players Patriots Could Have Drafted If Not For DeflateGate Punishment
By Michael Hurley, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- If Tom Brady ends up having to serve his four-game suspension for his alleged role in an alleged ball-deflation scheme, it will no doubt make life tough on the Patriots for one month.
Yet it's the loss of the first-round draft pick in this year's draft that not only has already been taken away but also stands to hurt the team for years to come.
We here at CBS Boston have estimated Bill Belichick's "hit percentage," so to speak, in the first round to be at about .850 over his 15 years with New England. So there's a very high likelihood that if he was able to make a pick at No. 29 on Thursday night, he'd have taken a very solid player who would have been a Patriot for anywhere between four and 10 years.
Ouch.
While there's no way to ever really predict how Belichick is going to draft, here is a list of the three players who were selected after the Patriots' slotted first-round spot, as well as the consensus most talented player available.
1. Robert Nkemdiche, DT, Ole Miss
The much-ballyhooed defensive lineman caused quite a stir in the week leading up to the draft by saying he wants to buy a pet panther to live in his home after being drafted. He also made headlines last December for falling out of a window after reportedly smoking synthetic marijuana (sound familiar?).
So perhaps the Patriots wouldn't have taken him. But the 6-foot-5, 293-pound Nkemdiche can play, and he was selected at No. 29 by the Arizona Cardinals. Perhaps he and Chandler Jones will have something to talk about in the huddle.
2. Vernon Butler, DT, Louisiana Tech
This one might sting, because several reports listed Butler as a potential target for the Patriots down at the end of the second round (or earlier in the second round if the Patriots moved up). Adam Jones picked him for the Patriots last week, albeit as a late second rounder.
At 6-foot-3, 323 pounds, Butler is a big body who registered 48 tackles and three sacks last season while earning First Team All-Conference USA.
He's now a Carolina Panther, going 30th overall.
3. Germain Ifedi, T, Texas A&M
The Patriots' biggest area of weakness last season was arguably at the tackle spot, so it stands to reason that they might have been looking to add to that position if they had a first-round pick.
To that end, if Germain Ifedi was in the Patriots' potential plans, he is no longer, as the Seahawks closed out the first round on Thursday night by selecting him.
He does fit a Patriots profile on some level, too, as he's a former guard who made the switch to tackle during his time at Texas A&M. The 6-foot-6, 324 pounder was named to second team All-SEC last season.
4. Myles Jack, LB, UCLA
He's considered to be the best player available heading into round two, so naturally he was available to all teams at the end of the first round.
Of course, an anonymous source recently said Jack's knee and/or knees are a "time bomb," and considering the Patriots just had to part ways with Dominique Easley, who had an actual history of major knee injuries in college, perhaps that would not have been in the cards for this year's pick.
5. Reggie Ragland, LB, Alabama
This was the player the Patriots would have picked in reporter Jeff Howe's opinion, and also Doug Kyed's. Of course, if more than one person believes Belichick will act one way in the draft, then that's a red flag that it's never going to happen.
Nevertheless, the 6-foot-1, 247-pound linebacker led Alabama with 97 tackles en route to being named SEC Defensive Player of the Year last season.
Hours before the draft, a report leaked saying that Ragland has an enlarged aorta, but that's likely not why he was available late in the first round. No team has drafted an inside linebacker yet, so Ragland still figures to be the first.
Of course, it's all speculation. There's a chance that none of these players would have been on the impossible-to-predict mind of Belichick and his staff. He's never been hesitant to take the guy he wants, regardless of some website's ranking and regardless of speculation leading up to the draft. And it's a safe bet that the Patriots probably would not have had the same line of thinking as the three teams -- Arizona, Carolina, Seattle -- that picked after New England's slot.
Still, considering the NFL still lacks hard evidence that the footballs were actually deflated, whoever it is you believe the Patriots would have drafted, you can now watch that player's career pan out and wonder what could have been.
Meanwhile for Belichick, despite owning the dubious distinction of being the only coach to be docked one first-round pick let alone two, it's now "on to the second round."
You can email Michael Hurley or find him on Twitter @michaelFhurley.