Farmers' Almanac predicts 'lots of snowstorms' for New England this winter, but can you trust their forecast?
By Terry Eliasen, WBZ-TV Meteorologist, Executive Weather Producer
BOSTON - It's the most wonderful time of the year. . .
Wednesday, on August 2, the Farmers' Almanac released their 2023/2024 winter outlook. Lovely.
I dunno about you, but the recent coolish days and crisp nights have been playing games with my head. This summer is FLYING by and I am NOT ready to come to grips with that. And, this is coming from a lover of all things fall and pumpkin!
And now we get this from the Farmers' Almanac?
The BRRR is Back!
Winter weather is making a comeback. After a warm winter anomaly last year, traditional cool temperatures and snowy weather conditions will return to the contiguous United States.
Our extended weather forecast, which is based on a mathematical and astronomical formula, calls for below-average temperatures and lots of snowstorms, sleet, ice, and rain for much of the Great Lakes and Midwest areas of the country, as well as central and northern New England, especially in January and February. (Brrr…)
Come on now...
I don't want to sound like a Farmers' Almanac hater (probably too late for that), but I feel like I have heard this before. . . like every year!
I admit, I don't keep a running diary of their yearly winter forecasts, but I can never remember them coming out and saying anything like, "nothing to see here, this winter is going to be mild and lame". Something tells me that wouldn't grab any headlines or sell any extra copies.
This year's edition also includes the typical way-too-specific snowstorm forecasts...
The second week of January will be stormy, snowy, and wet for both the Pacific Coast and the Eastern States.
An East Coast storm affecting the Northeast and New England states will bring snowfall, cold rain and then frigid temperatures, during the second week of February.
Another East Coast storm will bring a wintry mess to this area during the first week of March.
While none of the above would come as a great surprise to any New Englander, meteorologically speaking there is no way to make such predictions. It would be like throwing a dart, while blind-folded, and trying to hit a moving target that is 100 yards away (farther than you can actually throw a dart).
So how does the Almanac make such predictions?
They claim to use a 200-year-old formula that takes into account things like: sunspots, tides and planetary position. However, it appears that there is only one man who truly knows the formula, Caleb Weatherbee. Naturally, he was given a code-name to protect his identity. They actually claim that the forecasts are predicted TWO YEARS in advance and are never changed! I mean what could possibly change in the course of two years. . .
I am sure you are wondering if there could be any truth to this forecast. To that I would say, anything is possible. . . a broken clock is right twice a day.
I am not about to give you our WBZ winter forecast just yet. Way too many unknowns in the atmosphere and so much that can and will change in the coming months. BUT, lemme give you a few nuggets:
The biggest factor this winter, by far, will be the oncoming and strengthening El Nino.
There are no guarantees with regards to wintertime weather in New England during an El Nino.
Some of our lamest and least snowy winters have come during El Nino's, but we have also had some cold and snowy ones as well.
In the months ahead, we will be closely monitoring how strong the El Nino becomes and where the warmest Pacific waters are located (El Nino's are characterized by anomalously warm ocean water in the Pacific off of South America).
If the warmest anomalies remain close to the South American coastline (like they are now), that setup would favor a milder winter here (in general).
If the warmer water becomes more centrally located (west of where it is now), also known as a "Modoki El Nino" then we might be in for a colder winter.
But, it isn't nearly that simple. There are so many other factors that will need to play out in the coming months. Another big thing to watch will be the location of a warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska.
Remember some of those frigid winters around 2013-2014? Those were marked by a persistent pool of warm water sitting south of Alaska. This promoted ridging (and warmth) in the west and bitterly cold air in the midwest and northeast.
I could go on and on. Bottom line, at this point nobody really knows how this winter is going to play out. That forecast will evolve over the coming months and even when we do release a forecast sometime in November, it will still be highly speculative and filled with "ifs, ands and buts".
I wish you good luck Caleb Weatherbee! I am heading back to the beach.