Beware: These Fantasy Football 'Sleepers' Aren't As Strong As You Think
You can't win a fantasy football championship without a few good "sleeper" picks. Of course your studs that you draft in the opening rounds lead the way, but no great fantasy team is complete without players who significantly outperform their average draft position (ADP).
Every year, there's a fresh crop of young, up-and-coming players (sometimes veterans) that find themselves in position to gain a larger workload before or during the season. If you drafted the likes of Justin Forsett or Jeremy Hill in 2014, you probably had a good run.
But for every Jeremy Hill, there's a Toby Gerhart. Not all sleepers meet expectations, and can burn you badly in the process. Many of them are simply so hyped that they are over-drafted.
Oftentimes, the struggles of a young, rising prospect is a product of the team around him. That's the theme here: these players have plenty of talent and certainly could deliver on their draft day promise, but the teams around them could prevent them from reaching their full potential.
You will find these players on many "Sleepers" and "Breakout Players" lists this season, and they are not crazy for picking them. If you pick these guys, you won't be in bad shape - just don't over-draft them. Their skills alone won't be enough to overcome the lack of talent around them.
RB Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
Hyde is a big, powerful back who can handle a heavy workload, and the 49ers let Frank Gore go to free agency, making him the clear starter and a popular sleeper pick. But there's a problem...the 49ers have gutted most of their roster and could be one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. They will likely play from behind a lot, forcing them to throw the ball, and Reggie Bush is there to handle pass-catching duties out of the backfield.
Perhaps even more concerning is the offensive line: they lost former All-Pro guard Mike Iupati to the division rival Cardinals, and tackle Anthony Davis retired, leaving them young and inexperienced in that area. Hyde may produce strong numbers on sheer volume, as his carries stand to get a massive bump - but the 49ers' potentially weak O-line could cap his effectiveness as a runner.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans
A similar situation to Hyde's, Hopkins becomes the Texans' unquestioned #1 receiver after Andre Johnson departed for the Colts. Hopkins is a strong route runner with great hands, and always a threat to make big catches down the field.
But the big question for Hopkins, and the Texans, is who will be throwing him the ball? The quarterback battle boils down to Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallet, both of whom should be familiar with Bill O'Brien's system from the Patriots - but neither has yet proven to be a consistently reliable passer. Hopkins is going to be drafted as a #1 or strong #2 receiver on most fantasy teams this season; he may not produce with the kind of consistency you look for in that spot.
WR Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders
Considering the amazing rookie class at wide receiver in 2014, you may be eager to jump on this year's crop, which is led by the 6'1" former Alabama wideout. Cooper's size and speed is strong and his open-field ability is outstanding, and as the 4th overall pick in the NFL Draft he enters his rookie season as the Raiders' probable #1 receiver.
But as previously said, Cooper is on the Raiders, a perpetual drain on fantasy success. His success will largely depend on the development of second-year QB Derek Carr, who showed promise as a rookie but is no guarantee to take a step forward. And the offensive line's ineptitude against the run (last in rushing yards in 2014) could lead to a lot of three-and-outs. Cooper may be the real deal, but he's likely to be overdrafted as a rookie.
Who are some other trendy sleepers you think won't live up to the hype? Share your thoughts in the comments.