ESPN's analytical prediction for Celtics-Heat series is preposterous

BOSTON -- The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat are facing each other in the NBA's Eastern Conference Finals. Both teams earned their spot.

But according to ESPN's analytics department, only one team has a chance to win.

Ahead of this year's conference finals, ESPN shared that its analytics models give the Celtics a casual 97 percent chance of winning the series.

That is ... preposterous. But it's also not new, per se.

Last year, when the Celtics were matched up against the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals, ESPN's analytics model loved Boston's chances in that series.

After the teams split the first two games in San Francisco, the model still loved the Celtics.

ESPN wasn't alone in that, as FiveThirtyEight's analytics model gave Boston an 80 percent chance of winning against the Warriors, a number that jumped to 92 percent after a Game 1 Celtics victory.

Yet as we know, the Celtics lost after taking a 2-1 series lead, the Celtics lost Game 4, and then Game 5 ... and then Game 6. The computer models didn't foresee that happening.

(FiveThirtyEight gives the Celtics a robust 78 percent chance of beating the Heat in this series, which is still strong but likely more in line with reality than ESPN.)

ESPN's analytical predictions aren't exactly the toast of the sports town at the moment, either, after a major misjudgment during the NFL Draft. ESPN's analytics somehow gave Will Levis a 99.9 percent chance of being drafted in the first round, but he was passed over all night long. 

It made for some excruciating camera shots of Levis throughout the night of the first round.

In this case, it may be challenging to determine exactly how or why the model loves the Celtics over the Heat so strongly. The Celtics should be favorites, no doubt, but the Heat always give Boston problems. After going down to the wire in Game 7 last year, the Heat split their season series with Boston this year, going 2-2. Jimmy Butler didn't play for Miami in one of the Boston victories, and Jaylen Brown didn't play in one of the Heat victories.

During the playoffs, the Heat have taken a tougher path to the conference finals, having knocked off the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in the first round and needing just five games to do it.

The Celtics may have more talent with First Team All-NBA Jayson Tatum and Second Team All-NBA Jaylen Brown, but it's not completely lopsided. The Heat still have six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry and two-time All-Star Bam Adebayo, in addition to Second Team All-NBA Jimmy Butler.

And on the sideline, Erik Spoelstra will be coaching the 173rd playoff game of his 15-year head-coaching career when the series tips off Wednesday night. For Boston, Joe Mazzulla will be coaching the 14th playoff game of his head-coaching career, which dates back to late September. That's a massive advantage for Miami.

Alas, the computer model says there's basically the same chance of a blizzard hitting Miami this week as there is of the Heat winning the series. We'll find out in the coming weeks how well or how poorly that aligns with reality.