Will there be a white Christmas in Massachusetts?
BOSTON - Are you dreaming of a white Christmas in Massachusetts? Most folks would agree that some snow on the ground Christmas morning helps to set the mood as long as it doesn't disrupt getting to grandma's house.
So, what are our chances this year? Let's start by defining exactly what a "white Christmas" is.
What is a white Christmas?
The National Weather Service says that in order to qualify for a white Christmas, there must be at least 1" of snow on the ground (where you live) at 7 a.m. on Christmas morning. Yes, this is somewhat arbitrary and "made-up" but for the purposes of this blog, let's go with it.
Seems easy enough right? As it turns out, having a measly inch of snow on the ground on December 25 is becoming more and more difficult.
In Boston, it has only occurred twice since the year 2000, the last time being 15 years ago! You may recall that we had a decent little snowstorm on Christmas Day back in 2017, but those 2.9" fell AFTER 7 a.m. in Boston.
Looking strictly at climatology and compiling the data over the last 100+ years, you get a very colorful map:
Not surprisingly, your odds get higher the farther north and west you live. For instance, while Boston has between a 10-25% chance of a white Christmas, Worcester is between 40-50% and Fitchburg between 50-60%.
Again, if you took just the last 20-25 years, these numbers would be MUCH lower. With one week to go, here is a look at our current snow depth.
Very uninspiring thanks to several rainstorms in the last few weeks.
Over the next six days, there are two chances for snow.
Friday night-Saturday snow possibility
A storm system will approach our area from the west on Friday with a swath of light snow. However, as this storm nears New England, it will transfer its energy to an offshore storm a few hundred miles out at sea.
The offshore storm will become a very powerful storm this weekend but not until it is well past our latitude and up near Nova Scotia.
While we will certainly miss out on the main impacts from this storm, there is a decent chance of some light rain and snow in southern New England at times Friday night and Saturday. Will it add up to an inch of snow anywhere? Chances are low, certainly less than 50%, but something worth watching.
Christmas snow possibility
There is one last chance for a Hail Mary at the buzzer. A very weak disturbance will shoot out of the Great Lakes next Tuesday and zips through New England sometime between Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
While the odds of this dropping an inch of snow just in the nick of time are low, at the very least it could mean some mood flurries in the air during Santa's ride or on Christmas Day!
Our official Christmas Eve (Santa's Ride) forecast is for some light rain or snow and temperatures in the low 30s.
And for Christmas Day, more possible flurries early in the day, otherwise mainly cloudy with highs in the 30s to near 40.
White Christmas chances
Adding it all up, here is the WBZ Weather team's forecast chances of a white Christmas:
We basically are blanketing our entire area with about a 25% chance of having 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning. Probably not the news you were looking for but at least there is a chance.
We'll keep searching for snow and will keep you updated with any forecast changes on WBZ-TV and CBS News Boston.