Keys for a Celtics victory over Warriors in NBA Finals
BOSTON -- The Celtics finally broke through and made it to the NBA Finals for the first time in a dozen years. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart are playing for their first NBA title, looking to raise the 18th banner in Celtics history.
Standing in their way is the Golden State Warriors, who know a thing or two about raising banners. They've done that three times in the last eight seasons, and are making their sixth Finals appearance over that span. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are as experienced as they come in the Finals, and head coach Steve Kerr has a plethora of Finals knowledge from both his playing and coaching days.
The Celtics, meanwhile, have zero Finals experience on their roster. Head coach Ime Udoka has coached in a Finals as an assistant, but obviously never as a head coach. Assistant Ben Sullivan won a ring last year while on the Bucks bench, while Will Hardy was a Spurs video coordinator when Udoka won his ring in San Antonio in 2014.
None of that compares to Kerr's experience. He owns an 89-32 record in the postseason, and is 17-11 in the NBA Finals.
Experience is just one of the many factors heading into this matchup, and though the Warriors are slight favorites, the Celtics certainly have a shot to take them down. Will the Warriors retake their spot atop the NBA, or can the Celtics kickstart the start of their own little dynasty? We'll find out in a few weeks.
If the Celtics want to beat the Warriors, they're going to have to play close-to-perfect basketball. Here are some keys heading into what should be an exciting and thrilling NBA Finals matchup.
Kings Of The Road
The Celtics are going to have to win some games on the road if they want to be NBA champs, which hasn't been an issue this postseason. Boston is 7-2 away from TD Garden during the playoffs, which is tied for the most road wins ever for a team heading into the Finals.
Boston's average margin of victory in those seven wins is 10.4 points. Even if you take out their 25-point blowout win in Game 2 in Miami, the Celtics still have won those other six playoff games by an average of eight points.
The Warriors are 9-0 at Chase Center this postseason, but that unbeaten record isn't safe against the Celtics. Boston is actually undefeated in Oakland/San Francisco over the last four seasons, winning each road tilt by an average of 16 points. If the Celtics can take one of the first two games of the series, that would drastically help their chances of winning a title.
Clean Up Crunch Time
If they aren't blowing out opponents, the ends of games have been an adventure for the Celtics. Heck, even the ends of quarters have been a wild ride.
That cannot happen against Golden State, a team filled with closers. This is where experience will matter the most.
If the Celtics have a slim lead, they can't milk the clock and play "not to lose." They can't let the Warriors double Tatum and settle for Smart hoisting the final five shots, which seemed to be the plan at the end of Game 7 against the Heat. While Smart has knocked down some daggers in his time, he was left wide open for a reason. Jaylen Brown needs to move without the ball to find a better look closer to the basket rather than Boston simply relying on threes.
"We'd like to get to the basket and get some layups. They took it out of Jayson's hand, and we've dealt with that all year," Udoka said Tuesday when asked about the late-game execution in Game 7. "Some of the looks are great, but other times you want to slash and make them pay. We could have gotten to the basket and not relied on the three-point shot."
The Celtics need to be ready to play 48 minutes, because the Warriors have been nothing short of extraordinary in the fourth quarter this postseason. They have a 133.9 offensive rating in the fourth quarter, outscoring opponents by 25.4 points per 100 possessions in the final frame.
The Turnover Battle
This series will put two of the best defenses in the league against each other, with the Celtics and the Warriors ranking No. 1 and No. 2 in defensive efficiency.
One area the Celtics need to be much better in is their turnovers. Boston has averaged 14 turnovers per game this postseason, which jumps to 16.3 in losses. Against the Warriors, turnovers turn into transition threes in a hurry, so they've got to do a much better job at protecting the ball. Golden State has averaged 6.8 steals, with opponents turning it over 12.8 times per game against them.
The Warriors offense hasn't had many issues this postseason, but turnovers have been one them. They're averaging 14.8 per game, which is fifth-worst among the 16 playoff teams. The number jumps to 16.3 turnovers, which in turn became 20.8 points for opponents, in Golden State's four playoff losses.
Defense is going to go a long way in this series.
Elevate the Defense
It's a wild concept because the Celtics have been incredible on defense this postseason. But they haven't seen an offense that operates like the Warriors.
Granted, the Warriors are not the Warriors of a few years ago, and Golden State has not yet encountered a defense quite like Boston's. The matchups are going to be fascinating, especially watching Smart hound Curry whenever he touches the ball. He's done fairly well against Curry over the last few years.
And even when Smart gets switched off his man, Boston's switching defense has made life miserable for just about everyone. Brown can slide over and take Curry in a switch, and it will be interesting to see if Robert Williams can swat away of his three-point tries.
The Boston defense has been phenomenal all season, and it's going to have to be at the top of its game to bring home a title.
Take Advantage Of 1-on-1 Opportunities
The Warriors defense is also pretty darn good, but the Celtics can -- and should -- exploit a few players on that end. Curry can hold his own at times, but he should be hunted down in switches every chance Boston gets. The same goes for Jordan Poole, who should be in the crosshairs of Tatum and Brown throughout the series. And Klay Thompson has lost a step on the defensive end, which was to be expected after he missed the majority of the last two seasons. Go after him and test him as much as possible.
There are matchups the Celtics need to exploit in the games ahead. But whatever they do, they should stay away from No. 23. That dude is a menace.
Stars Need To Shine
They've finally broken through and made it to the Finals. Tatum and Brown cannot wilt under the spotlight.
There is a lot to be said about Boston's team approach. Smart is a huge part of what the Celtics do on both ends, Al Horford is the glue that holds it all together, and Derrick White and Grant Williams both have their roles. But this series is going to come down to the star power of both teams.
Tatum and Brown cannot have many (or any) off nights against the Warriors. This is what they play for, so go out there and take it.
Tatum has been incredibly solid when going head-to-head with Curry's Warriors over the last four years, averaging 27 points off 50 percent shooting and 43 percent from downtown. In his last seven games against Golden State, Brown has averaged 18.8 points off 46 percent shooting and 43 percent from three-point range.
When those two guys are both feeling it, the Celtics are hard to beat. But Boston has an extremely difficult uphill battle whenever one of them is off, so the C's star duo cannot afford many bad nights going forward.