How the Celtics can handle the Heat in Eastern Conference Finals
BOSTON -- Here comes another Celtics-Heat Eastern Conference Finals, one that we hope is a little less stressful on the ticker of Boston fans than the previous three times that these teams met for a trip to the NBA Finals.
It was Boston and Miami in the NBA's final four last year, with the Celtics winning a heart-stopping, gut-wrenching, hair-pulling seven-game series. A few years prior, in the NBA bubble, the Heat burst the Celtics' title hopes with a six-game series win in Orlando in front of digital fans.
And while their 2012 Eastern Conference Finals matchup was filled with players who have since moved on from playing basketball (minus LeBron James, of course), it's hard to forget that incredible seven-game series that was James' coming out party and the end of the Paul Pierce-Kevin Garnett-Ray Allen Big Three as we knew it.
Essentially, when the Celtics and the Heat meet up this late in the playoffs, we're in for a show. And this season's entry into the rivalry should be just as interesting.
The Celtics possess a much deeper and more talented roster than the Heat, but Miami has proven that no matter the discrepancy in talent or record, they can battle with anyone. The Heat just made the playoffs at 44-38, and then proceeded to lose the first play-in game to the Atlanta Hawks. They claimed the East's 8-seed by beating the Chicago Bulls in the second play-in game.
Since then though, they've been tough to beat. Jimmy Butler is playing some extraordinary basketball, Bam Adebayo is doing his thing, and Kyle Lowry continues to be a pest and throw his massive backside around to annoy the heck out of opponents. The Heat stunned the top-seeded Bucks in five games in the first round, and then dispatched a pesky Knicks team in six games to get to this point. Miami battles like very few other teams in the NBA, and they have one of the best coachs in the business on the sideline in Erik Spoelstra.
The Celtics should win this series, and they should do so somewhat easily. But it won't be easy for the East's two-seed, because nothing is ever easy with these Celtics.
If there is an easy path, or a long and winding road filled with treacherous obstacles, the Celtics always take the latter. And they'll even throw a few self-made obstacles in front of themselves along the way.
But maybe they'll surprise us and find a way to make quick work of Miami and return to the NBA Finals for the second straight season. It's unlikely, but here's how they could pull it off.
Pour on those points when you can
The Heat finished last in the NBA during the regular season at just 109.5 points per game. They're up to 113.3 in the playoffs, which is just a tick better than the Lakers for the final four teams remaining in the postseason.
So you'd think the dynamic Celtics offense should have no problem outscoring Miami. But the Heat defense is outstanding, holding opponents to just 109.8 points per game in the regular season and 108.8 points per game in the playoffs. (The Celtics are a shade better at 108.3 points per game allowed.)
Thanks to Butler and Bam, the Heat are good at shutting down the paint. They can also shut down the perimeter, with opponents hitting just 33.8 percent of their 3-pointers this postseason. They can also slow down the fast break, allowing just 10.6 fast-break points this postseason.
The Celtics are at their best when they get out and run. The Heat are going to make that tough this series. The Celtics really need to score points when points are to be scored. Empty possessions and missed bunnies cannot happen.
We're not expecting 50 from Jayson Tatum every night, but he needs to carry over his Game 7 mentality into this set. Play free and have fun. If Tatum only scores in the teens, the Celtics would be in serious trouble.
Jaylen Brown has a chance to really swing this series in Boston's favor. He's having an incredible postseason, averaging 24.6 points while hitting 54.1 percent from the floor. He's been deadly from downtown too, hitting 47.1 percent of his 3-pointers.
If Tatum and Brown are both cooking, the Celtics should be able to extinguish the Heat with ease. If one of them is off or expertly guarded on a given night, the other needs to pick up the slack.
Close the bakery
Ball security is a huge key for the Celtics this series. The Celtics could have opened a bakery with all their turnovers against the Heat during the regular season.
Miami forced opponents to cough up the ball 15.7 times per game in the regular season, and have kept that going by forcing 14.3 turnovers per game in the playoffs. The Heat have turned those postseason turnovers into 20.4 points per game.
The Celtics have been pretty good about not giving their opposition the ball this postseason, committing only a dozen turnovers per game. That's not great, but it's not terrible. In last year's Eastern Conference Finals, they committed an average of 14.6 turnovers per game against the Heat, and it nearly cost them the series.
At least that was better than what the Celtics did turnover-wise against the Heat during the regular season. In four games against Miami, Boston turned it over 75 times, averaging 18.8 per game. On Dec. 2, the Celtics gave the ball to Miami 20 times to set a season high mark (low mark?) and lost that game in overtime.
Don't Let Jimmy Buckets take over
Facing Jimmy Butler is absolutely terrifying at any time in the season, but especially right now. That dude is fearless and a true gamer, and he's on a real heater this postseason. Butler is averaging a robust 31.1 points per game (knocking down 52.7 percent of his shots) to go with 6.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists. He's also getting to the line over 10 times per game.
The Celtics were able to keep Trae Young in check and shut down James Harden for most of last series, but Butler is a different animal. He shot 55 percent against the Celtics in his two games against them in the regular season. He's a wizard at drawing contact and getting to the free-throw line, so disciplined defense is a must for the Celtics.
At least the Celtics are well-equipped to defend a guy like Butler. Jaylen Brown will get some looks defensively on the Heat superstar. So will Marcus Smart and Derrick White. Jayson Tatum may even find his way on Butler.
Make Butler work for everything. He had no legs at the end of last year's Eastern Conference Finals, which thankfully led to him front-rimming his potential game-winning three-ball at the end of Game 7. Hopefully this time around, the Celtics won't need seven games to end the series.
Expand the rotation
The Celtics looked like a different team when coach Marcus Smart Joe Mazzulla finally changed things up and put Robert Williams back in the starting five. With that, Derrick White made his way to the bench and joined Malcolm Brogdon in the team's reserves. For the last two games of the series, they were Boston's only reserves to play when it really mattered.
That is going to have to change against the Heat. Playing just seven players in a battle against the Heat isn't sustainable. They're going to need Grant Williams to play some minutes and help against Butler and Bam, or at least make use of his six fouls.
White also needs to find his game again, after struggling against the 76ers. He could be a huge two-way factor off the bench.
Make home court count
Boston won Game 7 in Miami last season, and should this series go the distance, that deciding game would be at TD Garden. That's good news, right? It should be, but it hasn't been.
The Celtics are just 10-9 at home over the last two postseasons. They were 1-2 at TD Garden against the Heat in last year's Eastern Conference Finals, losing Game 3 and Game 6 in front of their home fans. Then they proceeded to lose two more home games in the NBA Finals.
Jaylen Brown called out the fans after a lifeless effort -- both by the crowd and the team -- in Game 5 against the 76ers. They got an incredible home crowd for Sunday's Game 7 against the 76ers, and the players fed off that energy.
Keep that good Garden mojo going. Take care of business at home, and the Celtics should be able to take care of the Heat in easy fashion.