NBA scout: Celtics-Heat will come down to players, not Mazzulla-Spoelstra matchup

BOSTON -- The Celtics and the Heat are clashing in the Eastern Conference Finals for the third time in the last four years. In a very unique and slightly odd twist, the Celtics will be on their third different head coach of the three meetings, with rookie Joe Mazzulla on the bench this time around.

Boston had another rookie head coach leading the way last season in Ime Udoka, but no one needs a refresher on what went down with that. In 2020, it was Brad Stevens on the bench, and he's now the man calling the shots in the front office.

Meanwhile, on the Miami bench, it's mainstay Erik Spoelstra, who is in his 15th season as head coach of the Heat. He's one of the best in the business, with a pair of championship rings and five Eastern Conference titles.

In terms of experience, it's hard to match the plethora of basketball knowledge, especially playoff knowledge, that rests in Coach Spo's head. He has a clear and vast advantage over Mazzulla in that department, one of the few areas where this year's Miami team holds the edge over Boston.

Will that make a big difference in the upcoming series? Longtime NBA scout Jeff Nelson doesn't believe so.

"I think it's overrated. Erik Spoelstra is obviously a tremendous coach who has won an NBA title and has all that experience. But for me, at the end of the day, it comes down to the players," Nelson told WBZ-TV's Dan Roche ahead of the series. "I think the Celtics just have better players. Coach Mazzulla, I think the key thing for him was inserting two bigs into the lineup -- playing Al Horford and Robert Williams -- and if they maintain that this series, they'll make it difficult on Jimmy Butler. If Butler tries to get to the basket he'll meet Horford and Williams.

That switch in the starting lineup -- sending guard Derrick White to the bench in order to start the double-big lineup -- helped Boston dispatch the 76ers in seven games, turning the series around in Game 6 after the Celtics fell into a 3-2 series hole.

"I think Mazzulla understands the value of having his two bigs on the floor at the same time and make Miami beat them from the outside. Miami only shot 30 percent from three in the last series," said Nelson, who spent 12 years with the Utah Jazz and has also worked with the Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers. "I think the Celtics are going to pack it in and make the Heat beat them from the outside."

Nelson said that the Celtics will present a lot of matchup issues for the Heat with their two-headed monster of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

"[The Heat] have Jimmy Butler, who is a tremendous two-way player, but they have to pick their poison. Does Jimmy guard Jayson or does Jimmy guard Jaylen? I'm sure he'll be on Tatum, which will free up Brown to get some quality shots," said Nelson.

Bam Adebayo is always a matchup concern with the Celtics, and Boston fans no doubt still have nightmares of Bam's block on Tatum in the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals in the NBA bubble. But Nelson noted that the Miami frontcourt does have a weak link that Boston will be able to exploit.

"What you'll see the Celtics do in the first two games is attack Kevin Love when he's on the floor, like they attacked [Joel] Embiid in Game 7. You'll see them try to really go at Kevin Love with pick-and-roll with Tatum and Brown, and force Love to come out and guard those guys," he said. 

The Celtics are no strangers to the Heat or the Eastern Conference Finals, and they should be able to use their experience to their advantage. But winning at home, which has been an issue for Boston over the last few years, is extremely important for the Celtics to win the series.

"They've played in the Finals, played and won Game 7's. The Celtics should be fine. My biggest concern is within the last 20 home playoff games they're only 10-10," noted Nelson. "It's critical that they win Game 1, because the Heat have won both of the last two series by winning Game 1 and taking away that home-court advantage."

Since these Boston Celtics don't know how to find the easy road, Nelson cautions that the team will have a letdown after Sunday's epic Game 7 win over Philly. But making sure that letdown doesn't result in another frustrating home loss is key.

"After playing such a great game against the 76ers on Sunday, there is going to be a letdown," he said. "The Celtics are smart enough to understand that Game 1 is critical, and if they can win both games at home, I don't think the Heat are capable of beating them in four out of five."