Who do you want: the Heat or the Hawks as Celtics first-round opponent?

BOSTON -- The Celtics will find out Tuesday night if they'll be squaring off against the Miami Heat or the Atlanta Hawks in the first round of the NBA playoffs. No one on the team will say which opponent they'd rather face, but the answer is an easy one.

Boston's preferred opponent is obviously the Hawks, because the Hawks were not a very good basketball team during the 2022-23 season. They were a mediocre 41-41 in the regular season, averaging 118.4 points while allowing 118.1 points per game. Not good, not terrible, but certainly not great.

As Atlanta struggled to get to .500 around the All-Star break, they parted ways with head coach Nate McMillan, whom the Hawks gave a four-year contract ahead of the 2021 season. Replacing him was Quin Snyder, who kept up Atlanta's solid offense (with a 120.1 rating since the break, ranking fourth in the NBA) but the defense continued to struggle immensely. The Hawks carried an abysmal 118.2 defensive rating since the All-Star break, ranking 25th in the league.

(For comparison's sake, the Celtics ranked fifth with a 118.3 offensive rating and second with a 110.4 defensive rating after the break.)

Trae Young can still put up points in a hurry, but his offense has been a bit off this season. He hasn't paired as well with Dejounte Murray as the Hawks would have liked, and John Collins has taken a step back this season. With all of Atlanta's struggles this year, there have been rumblings of potentially dealing Young this offseason.

All in all, it's been a hot mess in Hotlanta.

For a variety of reasons, the inconsistent Hawks are the opponent that the Celtics should want to see in the first round. Boston was 3-0 against Atlanta during the regular season, winning both road tilts in fairly easy fashion. The Celtics shot over 54 percent from the floor in their two wins in Atlanta, and then, playing mainly backups in Sunday's regular season finale, still notched a victory against the Hawks at TD Garden.

The Hawks present a much easier path to the second round for the Celtics. But because the Hawks are the definition of a "meh" team this season, they're probably going to get trounced by the Heat in Tuesday night's play-in game, which tips off around 7:30 p.m. in Miami.

As the seven-seed, the Heat own home court advantage on Tuesday. They won both tilts against the Hawks in Miami, both of which came in early March, and split the two in Atlanta to go 3-1 against the Hawks overall. And in the short history of the NBA's play-in tournament, the No. 7 seed has won all four games against the No. 8 seed. 

While the Heat struggled for large stretches of the season and finished 44-38, they'd still be a difficult matchup for the Celtics -- or for anyone for that matter. Erik Spoelstra always has his players ready and eager to fight.

The Celtics and the Heat split their regular season meetings, though three of those matchups happened before the calendar flipped to 2023. The Celtics won in Miami, 111-104, behind 29 points from Jayson Tatum and 28 from Jaylen Brown. That was just Boston's second game of the season.

The two teams met for back-to-back games in Boston on Nov. 30 and Dec. 2, which they split. The Celtics took the first game, 134-121, thanks to 49 points from Tatum, 26 from Brown, and 29 points from Malcolm Brogdon off the bench. 

Tatum was ice cold two nights later, scoring just 14 points off 5-for-18 shooting overall. He missed all seven of his 3-point attempts, as the Celtics lost 120-116 in overtime. Brown scored 37 for Boston, and banked in a deep three with 1.7 seconds left to force extra basketball. But it wasn't enough as Jimmy Butler returned to the Heat lineup and scored 25 points, while Bam Adebayo added 28 points and seven rebounds.

The Celtics and the Heat met for a fourth and final time of the regular season in Miami on Jan. 24. The Celtics led on the road heading into the fourth quarter despite playing without Brown, Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Al Horford, but scored just 13 points in the final frame to fall 98-95. Tatum had 30 points for Boston, while the Butler-less Heat got 30 points and 15 rebounds from Adebayo.

The Heat were never particularly great during the regular season, and they actually took a step backward after the All-Star break. Miami was just 11-11 after the break with a middle of the pack offense (a 115.3 rating that ranked 16th) and an even worse defense (117.5 rating, ranking 22nd). Tough, hard-nosed defense is usually their calling card, but the Heat have been sluggish on that front as of late.

But none of that will make Celtics fans feel any better about a potential postseason meeting with Miami. The Heat are battle tested and always play the Celtics tough. It's understandable if fans still have nightmares about Jimmy "Buckets" hitting a clutch shot against the C's or Adebayo rejecting Tatum in the NBA bubble in 2020. 

The two teams are also very familiar with each other, having played in two of the last three conference finals. The stakes won't be as high should they meet again this postseason, but the series could be just as nerve-wracking.

The Celtics should still win. They should win the series in no more than five games, maybe six if Miami steals one in Boston to start the series. Boston is the far superior team with better depth and more star power atop the roster.

But while the Heat may not be as hot as they usually are come playoff time, they're still going to be a difficult out in a seven-game series. If the Celtics want the path of least resistance this postseason, then they'll be rooting hard for the Hawks on Tuesday night. If they want to take the difficult road back to the Finals, a road they traveled and conquered last postseason, then the Heat would be the ultimate first-round battle for them.