Bruins Defy 'Importance' Of Puck Possession Stats, One Failed Scoring Chance At A Time
By Matt Dolloff, CBS Boston
BOSTON (CBS) -- Advanced stats have changed analysis in hockey as much as any major sport. For the National Hockey League, it's the advent of puck possession stats that has created a whole new avenue to help determine how teams play and why they win or lose. For the Boston Bruins, their puck possession has been statistically good, yet ultimately lacks meaning when players fail at an alarming rate to bury scoring chances.
The key word there, is "help," meaning that advanced possession metrics like Corsi (the total number of shot attempts for or against a team or player) and Fenwick (Corsi, minus blocked shot attempts) can tell some of the story, but not be the end-all-be-all of analyzing a game, team, or season. Yet NHL.com lists the puck possession stat "Shot Attempts % Close" (CorsiFor% Close), "close" meaning the score is tied or within one goal in the third period, as a "significant indicator of which teams make the Stanley Cup Playoffs."
It's not entirely wrong; the 2014-15 regular season finished with 12 of 16 playoff teams above the 50% mark in CorsiFor% Close. Yet the Bruins were one of those teams above the dotted line, and they missed the playoffs. The Ottawa Senators, who edged the Bruins out for that last playoff spot, finished at 49.48 percent. In 2014, the Bruins won the Presidents' Trophy and finished third in that category, but ultimately lost to the Montreal Canadiens, who finished 26th (!) in the league.
SEE ALSO: Bruins Playoff Hopes Come Down To April 7th Game Vs. Red Wings
The Bruins' team CorsiFor% (all situations) in their four Stanley Cup Quarterfinal losses to Montreal, who outscored Boston 15-6 in those games, was 57.5 percent, an excellent rate on the surface. The Bruins out-shot the Canadiens 137-92 in those four losses. They won 59.5 percent of faceoffs and started in the offensive zone 62.4 percent of the time.
Just reading those numbers probably sent sounds of pucks-on-posts reverberating through your eardrums; the Bruins' strong puck control and possession stats could not overcome an unnerving lack of ability to bury the chances given to them. It's perhaps the biggest example of why puck possession is only part of the battle and not the ultimate indicator of success, but just one example when it comes to the Bruins.
As the 2015-16 regular season draws to a close, as of Wednesday there are just 10 of 16 current playoff teams above 50 percent in the league's self-proclaimed "significant indicator" of playoff berths. The Bruins sit at 49.34 percent and the same problem with lack of finish that doomed them in 2014 has crept back into their game in 2016. It comes at the worst possible time: with just five games left in the regular season, they are ahead of the Detroit Red Wings by just one point for third in the Atlantic Division and one of the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference.
This is no time for the Bruins to out-shoot an inferior team 40-15 and lose, missing wide some open nets and golden opportunities in the process.
You can't entirely attribute the Bruins' struggles to capitalize on scoring chances to "puck luck," either; did Matt Beleskey miss multiple point-blank scoring chances because he was unlucky or because he doesn't have the scoring touch of a top-line winger? Winning puck possession and creating scoring chances don't notch you a win in the end if you can't do that second part.
Many of you are being told what you already know: puck possession stats aren't everything. They don't tell the whole story. It's a favorite of certain hockey writers, but ultimately it's just another tool on the utility belt. For the Bruins in recent weeks, it's been a pretty dull, useless tool.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Have a news tip or comment for Matt? Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.