Patriots Playoff Picture: Winning Out Guarantees Bye, But Not No.1 Seed
BOSTON (CBS) -- The New England Patriots' chances of securing the No. 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs took a major hit on Sunday, when the Patriots lost to the Philadelphia Eagles on their home turf in Foxboro. With the team's second straight loss, they slide back to the other top contenders in the conference, and as of Week 14 hold the No. 3 seed behind the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos.
The Patriots' remaining four games have suddenly become must-wins in order to clinch the No. 1 seed as the calendar flips to January. The current playoff picture will be analyzed assuming New England wins out, because any more losses would likely land them on Wild Card weekend.
A 14-2 record guarantees the Patriots a top-2 seed in the conference, because either the Bengals or the Broncos are guaranteed at least 3 losses (unless they tie, which would incredible) after the two teams play each other in Denver in Week 16 on Monday Night Football. The Patriots would still need extra help from Cincinnati and/or Denver in order to earn the top seed, but Bengals - Broncos is clearly the "swing game" here.
Here's the short version... Essentially, the Patriots need to finish 14-2 and for the Broncos and Bengals to finish 13-3. But now here's the long version to get you totally up to speed with the AFC Playoff picture...
If the Broncos beat the Bengals...
...Then the Broncos would definitely have to lose one of their other remaining games.
Denver obviously owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, so they would need to finish at least 13-3 to finish behind the Patriots. If that one loss comes at the hands of the Bengals, then the Patriots would need Cincinnati to slip up against Pittsburgh, San Francisco, or Baltimore to end up No. 1.
If the Bengals beat the Broncos...
...Then the Bengals would probably need a letdown in one of the last games on the schedule. Tiebreakers leave open the possibility for the Patriots to beat the Bengals for the No. 1 seed even if they both finish 14-2.
The Bengals currently own the tiebreaker against the Patriots based on Cincy's record against the AFC (8-1), and would end up tied with the Patriots against the AFC at 11-1 if they both won out. The Patriots and Bengals would also be tied in the next tiebreaker, record against common opponents, at 4-1 - which brings it to the obscure "Strength of Victory" tiebreaker.
Entering Week 14, the Patriots' wins have come against teams with a combined .458 winning percentage, which bests the Bengals opponents' .392. That the Bengals played the Browns twice and still have the 4-8 49ers on their schedule bodes well for the Patriots, but beating Denver would likely give their SOV a massive boost. Cincinnati is the team in most control of their destiny as of Week 14.
Best-Case Scenario For The Patriots
The Broncos are going to be favored at home with the Bengals in town Week 16, so assuming Denver takes care of business in that game the Patriots will need to root for Denver to have a letdown either at home against the Raiders or Chargers, or on the road at the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The most likely - or least fluky - scenario for the Patriots to end up with the No. 1 seed would be a Cincinnati loss at Denver and a Denver loss at Pittsburgh. So there could be many Patriots fans waving Terrible Towels in the coming weeks.
Taking care of business
Of course, this is all assuming the Patriots win all four of their remaining games. It's absurd that a 14-2 record is a must to secure home field advantage, but it's been a strange season with a dearth of elite teams and almost no middle class. A 13-3 wild card team with a 7-9 division winner is a real possibility.
Winning out is no guarantee for the Patriots, especially after the Eagles showed that the Pats are capable of losing games that they should win. The Patriots get the surging Houston Texans on the road this weekend on Sunday Night Football, which is suddenly a pivotal game for both teams. They also still have to travel to Miami, where they have historically struggled, and to New York to face the Jets, who will be fighting for their own playoff spot.
The Patriots no longer completely control their playoff destiny, and the road ahead is tough. But if they can finish off a 14-2 record, they get their much-needed bye - and slip-ups by Cincinnati and Denver could have the road to Super Bowl 50 once again going through Foxboro.
Matt Dolloff is a writer for CBSBostonSports.com. His opinions do not necessarily reflect that of CBS or 98.5 The Sports Hub. Read more from Matt here. Follow him on Twitter @mattdolloff and email him at mdolloff@985thesportshub.com.