2023 hurricane season is underway. Here's what we should expect
By Terry Eliasen, WBZ-TV Meteorologist, Executive Weather Producer
BOSTON - It only takes one. This is something we repeat every hurricane season, which starts June 1. Regardless of what the forecast is, it takes just one to ruin your summer.
We have been quite fortunate here in New England for the last several decades. It has been more than 30 years since a hurricane made landfall in New England (Bob, 1991). What's even more important, it has been nearly 70 years since a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) made landfall in our area (Carol and Edna, 1954). That means that most of those currently living here have never lived through a major hurricane strike on New England.
To put it bluntly, we are due.
Naturally, hurricanes don't work that way. They do not operate on a time clock. Looking back over a longer period of time, it seems as though we go through periods of increased tropical activity. We had a run of hurricanes back in the late 30s, 40s and 50s, then a long lull. Then we had another burst in the late 80s and early 90s, and again, we have now been in a quieter period.
Could this be the year? It's hard to say, but we can get some clues by analyzing the bigger planetary factors heading into the 2023 hurricane season.
First up, El Nino.
You will be hearing a lot about this in the coming months. Most signs point to an oncoming El Nino this summer and fall. El Ninos cause a warming in the ocean water off of South America which leads to all kinds of downstream consequences.
With regards to hurricane season, typically El Nino years tend to have less activity. These years are characterized by lots of wind shear in the regions where tropical development occurs. This could cut down on the number of storms forming in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. So, perhaps there is a slightly less chance of a long-duration storm tracking through the Caribbean and up the East Coast, but, that doesn't preclude a tropical system from developing closer by.
The other major factor heading into the summer and fall are ocean water temperatures. You can see a lot of red on this map below. That indicates warmer than average sea-surface temperatures. Most of the ocean in the main development region for tropical systems has very warm water this year. Hurricanes feed off of a mild ocean, particularly anything 80 degrees or higher. So, this may work to counteract the El Nino wind shear issues. I think we will see several waves of low pressure coming off the African coast this summer, and there will be plenty of energy (warm water) to work with. The big question is, can they survive the trip through the Caribbean if there is some wind shear present?
Most experts, including the National Weather Service, are calling for a near-normal hurricane season in 2023, balancing the two main factors of the warm ocean and oncoming El Nino. But, again, the numbers are somewhat irrelevant. If all the hurricanes form out in the middle of the Atlantic and curve harmlessly out to sea, it won't matter to us whether there were five or 25.
However, like I said, it only takes one, one hurricane to head to New England on just the right (or wrong) track and that will be how we remember this season.
Lastly, here are this year's names - perhaps yours is on the list? They rotate every six years, only being replaced if a storm gets retired.
One final reminder that it is never too early to prepare. Have a hurricane plan. Sooner or later, we will find ourselves in the crosshairs and, you will be much better off having a head start.