Saddam Analysis: Capture's Impact

CBS News Military Analyst Col. Mitch Mitchell (Ret.) examines the net result of Saddam Hussein's capture.

Not gone are the beneficiaries of Saddam's largesse, some two million Sunnis who resent their diminished status. Not gone are the jihadists who have taken advantage of turmoil and crisis in recently liberated Iraq. And, not gone are the Sunni-Shiite rivalries that have existed for centuries and are now beginning to heat up, now that Saddam and his security forces are no longer keeping them under control. So, what is the net result of Saddam's capture?

Make no mistake about it. His capture was a monumental event in our efforts to stabilize Iraq. Most important is the fact that the chain of authority for Saddam loyalists has been destroyed. For more than two decades, Saddam called the shots. Nothing happened without his cognizance and approval. In reality, lines of authority did not exist much below Saddam. A structure of command and control existed, but those in charge were merely messengers and mouthpieces for Saddam.

Now there is mass confusion in the hierarchy of the loyalists. There may be missions of terror to execute in the near future, but after those have been accomplished, someone will have to fill the vacuum and make decisions that heretofore were exclusively in Saddam's domain. If a powerful leader does not emerge to lead the guerrilla campaign against the provisional government, the loyalists will have no rallying point and will resign themselves to finding a place and a role in the new Iraq.

To the jihadists operating in Iraq, Saddam's capture will have little influence or effect. They will continue their terrorist activities unless and until the people of Iraq realize they can control their destiny without fear of retribution. It will be difficult to change the mindset of people so oppressed for so many years. When that does happen, they, and not the U.S. military, will provide the driving force to eliminate jihad terrorism from their country. Until that time, the violence will continue.

The biggest question about the recovery of Iraq is whether the Sunni-Shiite rivalries can be contained through a democratic or any other process. To date, no solution has been suggested that has turned around the escalating violence between the two groups. Americans and coalition partners are in no position to solve the problem.

It is an Iraqi problem, and Iraqis must find a solution. What we have to remember is that we have always been and still remain the unwelcome infidels. Those who delude themselves into thinking we can solve a centuries old religious conflict in a foreign country don't understand the lessons of history and are doomed to mucking around in a quagmire for years to come.

In the absence of a true international peace keeping force, we would be best served by withdrawing our armed forces from Iraq within weeks after a permanent government is in place. After that time, we do not need to be their policemen.