From Trump to terrorism, the year in polls
An historic presidential campaign, the economy, race relations, and terrorism were some of the topics covered in CBS News Polls over the course of 2016. Here’s a look at back at what was on the minds of Americans this year.
The 2016 Election: High Interest, but Low Opinions
The year began with voters across the country captivated by the 2016 campaign. In a January CBS News/New York Times poll, 70 percent of voters described the election campaign as interesting; a reversal from four years earlier when most Americans (55 percent) told a Pew Research Center Poll that the 2012 campaign was dull.
Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton started the year as their party’s frontrunners and history was made when they became nominees: Clinton was the first woman nominee of a major party for president and Mr. Trump, now President-elect, was the first nominee without political or military experience. But Clinton and Trump were noteworthy for another reason – both were unpopular among the broader voting public.
Despite their successes during the primaries, throughout the general election campaign voters nationwide consistently viewed Mr. Trump and Clinton negatively. These candidates scored the highest unfavorable ratings of any major party candidates in CBS News polling going back to 1984, when the poll began asking this question.
Overall impressions of Clinton and Mr. Trump changed little over the course of the campaign with news events seemingly having little impact. In March of this year, 52 percent of registered voters nationwide held an unfavorable view of Clinton, and in the days before the election that figure was 54 percent.
Similarly, Trump’s unfavorable rating was 57 percent nationwide in March and stood at 56 percent heading into Election Day.
Not surprisingly, views of the candidates were influenced by partisanship. Clinton and Mr. Trump were viewed favorably by those in their own party (and unfavorably by the opposing party). Independents generally held negative views of both candidates.
Controversies and Characteristics
There was no shortage of scandals and controversies during the 2016 campaign and the CBS News Poll measured voters’ reactions to these events.
Clinton’s use of a private email address and server while Secretary of State dogged her campaign. Throughout 2016, most voters said Clinton did something wrong by setting up her email the way she did, including more than four in ten who thought what she did was illegal. These views changed little over the course of the campaign.
About a month before Election Day, a decade-old video surfaced of Mr. Trump talking about making advances toward women. A CBS News poll conducted soon after the video’s release found that more than eight in ten voters nationwide had heard or read about it. Forty percent of voters came away with a worse impression of Trump because of his comments, but it didn’t sway many of his supporters. Most said it had no impact on their views of Mr. Trump.
During the campaign, CBS News polling tested the candidates on some key attributes and characteristics. Clinton had an advantage on experience. She was seen by a majority of voters as prepared and qualified to be president, but most did not think she was honest or trustworthy.
Throughout 2016, the percentage who said Clinton was untrustworthy never dropped below 60 percent. As for Mr. Trump, his weaknesses were his temperament and that he wasn’t prepared for the job of president. Mr. Trump’s strength, however, was that he was seen as a straight talker. Voters were also more inclined to see Mr. Trump as someone who could bring change rather than Clinton.
Change would trump experience for many voters. Bringing change was the top quality voters were looking for in a candidate according to CBS News exit polls, and Trump won those voters handily.
Campaign 2016 – The Most Negative Ever?
As with many campaigns, opinions of the candidates and news events were viewed largely through a partisan lens, but partisans agreed on something about Campaign 2016 – it was one of the most negative they could remember.
In October, 82 percent of voters nationwide said this campaign was more negative than previous ones, a jump of 45 points from 2012 and the highest figure in the history of CBS News polls. Majorities of Republicans (79 percent), Democrats (76 percent) and independents (81 percent) described the 2016 race as more negative.
President Barack Obama
While a contest was being fought over who would become president in 2017, what about the person currently in the Oval Office? President Barack Obama started off his final full year in office with Americans divided about his job performance, but he ended on a high note. This month, a CBS News Poll found 56 percent of Americans approve of the job Mr. Obama was doing as president, a jump of 10 points since January and his highest approval rating in four years.
Compared with recent two-term presidents at similar points in their presidencies, President Obama’s approval rating is considerably higher than that of his immediate predecessor, George W. Bush (24 percent), but lower than both Bill Clinton’s (67 percent) and Ronald Reagan’s (63 percent).
The Economy
The public’s views of the economy grew more positive over the course of the year. Since September, more than half of Americans described the national economy as very or fairly good. Fifty-five percent said the economy was in good shape in a CBS News December poll, up six points from January.
And more than twice as many said the economy was getting better (36 percent) than getting worse (16 percent).
Race Relations and the Police
While Americans began feeling more positive about the economy this year, that was not the case with the state of race relations in the country. In July, negative views of race relations in the U.S. rose to a level not seen since the 1992 Los Angeles riots that followed the Rodney King verdict. Just 26 percent of Americans said race relations in the U.S. were good – an 11-point drop from a year before, while 69 percent said they were bad.
During 2016, there were of a number of incidents involving the police and African American civilians and polling this year showed a deep divide in how blacks and whites view the police.
In a July CBS News Poll, 85 percent of white Americans said their local police make them feel safe -- but just 53 percent of black Americans agreed. Forty-five percent of black Americans said the police made them anxious.
That same poll found differences by race in how the police use deadly force. Three in four African Americans said police are more likely to use deadly force against a black person than a white person, but 56 percent of white Americans said race doesn’t make a difference in the use of deadly force by police.
Terrorism
Americans remained on alert in 2016 when it came to terrorism. Following the attack a year ago in San Bernardino where 14 died and others were injured, the public’s concern about terrorism in the U.S. spiked. At that time, 44 percent said another terrorist attack in the U.S. was very likely, the highest percentage since right after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
In the aftermath of the shooting attack at a Orlando nightclub in June, Americans continued to be concerned about a terrorist attack but fears had ebbed a bit since San Bernardino.
CBS News Polling in 2016 found that most Americans continue to see the Islamic militant group ISIS as a major threat to the country and they don’t think the U.S. is doing a good job combatting that threat. In October, 59 percent of Americans said the fight against ISIS was going badly. Evaluations in the fall were more positive compared to the start of the year but still decidedly negative.
A Look at Women and Hispanics in the U.S.
In 2016, CBS News conducted in-depth surveys of two important demographic groups: women and Hispanics. In September, CBS News and the New York Times interviewed 865 women across the country to ask about their lives and their expectations for the future. The survey found women generally optimistic but still facing obstacles.
Seventy-seven percent of women said their opportunities to succeed in life are better than their mothers, and looking ahead, 74 percent said girls’ opportunities to succeed in life would be better than their own.
But, the poll found that 48 percent of women feel that there are more advantages in being a man in today’s society than in being a woman. Only 6 percent said women had more advantages.
In October, the CBS News Poll explored how Americans view Hispanic culture in the U.S. and asked Hispanics themselves about their own lives. Fifty-one percent of Americans said the influence of Hispanics in the U.S. has been mostly good for the country; just 13 percent said it has been mostly bad. Hispanics themselves were especially optimistic about their opportunities in the U.S. Six in ten said their opportunities to succeed in life are better than those of their parents, compared to 41 percent of non-Hispanics who felt that way.
Looking Ahead to 2017
Donald Trump campaigned on change and according to a recent CBS News poll, 62 percent of Americans think he will bring real change to the way things are done in Washington.
But many feel uneasy. More than half (53 percent) of Americans are either concerned or scared about what Mr. Trump will do as President, while fewer – 46 percent -- are excited or optimistic about a Trump presidency.
