Poll: Trump and Clinton voters on immigration, economy, trade
By Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto
The State of the Race
Heading into the two parties' conventions, the race for President is now tied, a change from last month when Hillary Clinton led by six points. Forty percent of registered voters now say they will back Clinton, while 40 percent say they'll vote for Trump.
This poll also sought to delve more deeply into the views that underlie voters' candidate choice, and identify attitudes on policy issues and views of the country that characterize each candidate's voters.
Globalization, Trade and Jobs
Trump supporters are noteworthy in their negative views of the impact of globalization, trade with other countries and the availability of U.S. jobs. Still, they think everyone has a fair chance to get ahead in the U.S. Most Clinton supporters think more is gained than lost from globalization, and are more inclined to think only a few people have a chance to get ahead.
Fifty-five percent of voters overall say the U.S. has lost more than it has gained as a result of globalization, but even more Trump supporters -- three in four -- think the country has lost due to globalization. In contrast, half of Clinton voters think globalization has had a positive impact on the U.S.
Similarly, most voters think that trade with other countries costs the country jobs; 75 percent of Trump voters say that trade loses U.S. jobs, and 48 percent of Clinton voters agree with that. Overall, only 19 percent of voters think that trade creates U.S. jobs
Voters are divided as to the future for good jobs in the U.S.: 47 percent say the best years are behind us, while 47 percent say the best is yet to come. Trump voters are much more pessimistic about the future of U.S. jobs than Clinton voters; a majority of her supporters -- 60 percent -- are optimistic.
But it's the Clinton voters who are more apt to say that only a few people at the top have a chance to get ahead in today's economy -- 67 percent of her voters feel this way.
And the poll finds greater economic anxiety among Trump supporters too; they are more likely to feel uneasy about their personal finances over the next few months.
Immigration, Walls and Muslims
While most voters, and a large majority of Clinton supporters, oppose building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, fully 73 percent of Trump voters support it. Among voters overall, 57 percent now oppose it, up from 48 percent in January.
Two in three Trump supporters support a temporary ban on allowing Muslims to enter the U.S. - something 87 percent of Clinton voters oppose.
And while most voters overall, and most Clinton supporters, think immigrants who are here illegally should be given a chance to stay and apply for citizenship, 44 percent of Trump supporters think they should have to leave the country. Fifty-one percent of Trump supporters think they should be permitted to stay, but just 37 percent think they should be allowed to apply for citizenship.
More Trump voters (49 percent) than Clinton supporters (14 percent) think illegal immigrants take jobs away from Americans.
Views on Minorities and the Changing Face of the U.S.
There are also differences between Trump and Clinton supporters in their views of minorities.
Half of Trump supporters think that too much has been made of the problems facing minorities in recent years - compared to just 16 percent of Clinton voters who say the same. Half of Clinton supporters think too little has been made of such problems.
Most voters - including most Trump and Clinton supporters - think that a future U.S. in which a majority of the population is non-white won't make a difference. But 27 percent of Trump voters think that will be a bad thing for the country, and a quarter of Clinton voters expect this will be a good thing.
ISIS
Trump and Clinton voters have somewhat different views on how things are going for the U.S. in its fight against ISIS; four in five Trump voters say it is going badly.
General Unease?
The poll suggests a significant chunk of voters - especially those supporting Donald Trump -- are feeling some discontent: many are uneasy with the changes taking place in the country, and pessimistic about the future. But most think the U.S. is one of the greatest or the greatest country in the world, and Trump supporters are especially likely to call it the greatest.
Sixty-one percent of voters say that the country's values are changing in a way they disagree with, and just 15 percent say the country's values are changing in a way they agree with. Fully 79 percent of Trump supporters see the country as changing in a way they don't agree with.
There is pessimism about the future as well in the poll, especially among Trump voters. Nearly half of voters -- 48 percent -- think the future for the next generation of Americans will be worse, rising to 59 percent among Trump supporters.
Half of voters say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in Washington, and another 33 percent are angry. Trump supporters are more apt to say they are angry - 44 percent feel that way. But even those supporting Clinton are unhappy with Washington.
But despite their frustrations, nearly all voters think the U.S. is one of the greatest, if not the greatest, countries in the world. Six in ten Trump supporters think it is the greatest country.
President Obama, Congress and the Economy
President Obama continues to enjoy higher approval ratings than he has had in recent years - 53 percent approve of the job he is doing - the same as last month.
Fifty percent approve of his handling of the economy, and 42 percent approve of his handling of foreign policy.
The percentage that thinks the country is headed in the right direction has dropped a bit in this poll - 26 percent now say the country is headed in the right direction, down from 33 percent last month. Sixty-nine percent say it is on the wrong track.
Fifteen percent approve of the job Congress is doing, and 79 percent disapprove. Congressional evaluations have been low for many months now.
Forty-nine percent say the economy is in good shape, while 50 percent say it is in bad shape. Twenty-four percent say it is getting better. Assessments have been similar since the start of the year.
This poll was conducted by telephone July 8-12, 2016 among a random sample of 1,600 adults nationwide, including 1,358 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and the New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones.
The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers.
The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.
The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of registered voters is four points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly.
This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.